US Firms Report Huge Dip in China Sales as Beijing Continues ‘Zero-COVID’ Measures

US Firms Report Huge Dip in China Sales as Beijing Continues ‘Zero-COVID’ Measures

Several major companies, including Starbucks, Apple, Estee Lauder, and other U.S.-listed companies have warned in quarterly earnings reports that China’s “zero-COVID” controls will severely drag down profit and impact business. 

International companies have faced a number of operational challenges in China, and the recent tightening of pandemic restrictions will only continue that trend. According to Bank of America’s proprietary model, S&P 500 companies in China have fallen to the lowest since the second quarter of 2020. 

Since mid-March, China has been battling an outbreak of the highly transmissible Omicron variant by enacting swift lockdowns and travel restrictions across its major cities. Health authorities have logged over 15,000 daily new infections of COVID-19 since April, with the country reporting 12,939 positive cases on May 5. 

READ MORE ON CHINA’S CORONAVIRUS SITUATION:

Starbucks and Apple both reported a decrease in same-store sales of over 20 percent — far worse than the 0.2 percent decrease analysts expected, according to FactSet. Starbucks said its in-person sales had gone down by 23 percent since the lockdowns in Shanghai began. 

“Conditions in China are such that we have virtually no ability to predict our performance in China in the back half of the year,” Starbucks Interim CEO Howard Schultz said

The coffee giant suspended its guidance for the rest of the fiscal year, or the remaining two quarters. However, Starbucks said it still expected its business dealings in China to grow larger than its homegrown U.S. audience in the long term. 

Despite nearly all its final assembly plants in Shanghai being given the green light to restart production, Apple said the lockdowns would likely impact sales in the current quarter from $4 billion to $8 billion — a “substantially” higher number compared to the last quarter. The other factor affecting sales is the ongoing chip shortage, Apple executives said during an earnings call on April 28. 

The effects from China’s lockdowns in Shanghai, and now Beijing, have exacerbated the decline in semiconductor imports by over 5 percent in the first two months of 2022 during a global chip shortage.

“Covid is difficult to predict,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said after describing those estimated costs, according to a transcript from the call obtained by StreetAccount.

Apple also blamed ongoing COVID-19 disruptions for affecting consumer demand in China.

People line up to be tested at a nucleic acid testing station in Beijing, China on May 6, 2022. (Image: JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images)

Beijing tightens restrictions

Authorities in China’s capital announced Friday, May 6, that all non-essential services in its sprawling district of Chaoyang, home to embassies and large offices, would close until further notice. Mass testing will also resume in at least four districts over the weekend.

Unlike other countries, which have loosened their controversial pandemic restrictions, the Chinese authorities have doubled down on their ruinous zero-tolerance approach. The latest lockdown in Shanghai was brought on at the end of March as health experts using a more targeted anti-epidemic regime were apparently sidelined in favor of the draconian “zero-COVID” policy. 

Meanwhile, organizers of the Asian Games, originally scheduled to take place in the eastern city of Hangzhou in September, also announced today that the event would be postponed until 2023 due to COVID restrictions. 

“We will try to cooperate,” Hu, a 42-year-old finance professional from Beijing told Reuters

“But I also hope that the government can introduce some policies that will not affect the overall life of citizens. After all, we all have mortgages and car loans,” Hu, who gave only her surname in fear of retaliation from the government, said. 

Beijing authorities are scrambling to avoid an explosion in cases like the one that forced the financial hub of Shanghai into complete lockdown for over a month, resulting in severe losses to its financial and economic sectors as most stores and businesses were forced to remain closed for weeks on end. 

The prolonged lockdowns also negatively impacted the psychological health of its residents, with some committing suicide by jumping off rooftops as they reached their breaking point, and others starving to death after completely running out of food and water, and unable to leave their homes to procure more. 

Recently, Shanghai appeared to ease some restrictions, allowing an estimated 4 million people to leave their homes. However, as new infections continued being found, authorities again tightened restrictions in certain areas, notifying residents that the lockdowns would continue until the virus is ”fully brought under control.”

China’s top officials defend ‘zero-COVID’ protocols 

US Firms Report Huge Dip in China Sales as Beijing Continues ‘Zero-COVID’ Measures

Several major companies, including Starbucks, Apple, Estee Lauder, and other U.S.-listed companies have warned in quarterly earnings reports that China’s “zero-COVID” controls will severely drag down profit and impact business.

International companies have faced a number of operational challenges in China, and the recent tightening of pandemic restrictions will only continue that trend. According to Bank of America’s proprietary model, S&P 500 companies in China have fallen to the lowest since the second quarter of 2020.

Since mid-March, China has been battling an outbreak of the highly transmissible Omicron variant by enacting swift lockdowns and travel restrictions across its major cities. Health authorities have logged over 15,000 daily new infections of COVID-19 since April, with the country reporting 12,939 positive cases on May 5.

READ MORE ON CHINA’S CORONAVIRUS SITUATION:

Citizen Journalist Jailed in Shanghai for Speaking Out Against ‘Zero-COVID’ Policy

Shanghai Reverses Decision to Loosen COVID Restrictions Despite Prolonged Suffering and Economic Damage

Desperate Residents Protest Shanghai Lockdown: ‘You are driving people to their deaths’

Starbucks and Apple both reported a decrease in same-store sales of over 20 percent — far worse than the 0.2 percent decrease analysts expected, according to FactSet. Starbucks said its in-person sales had gone down by 23 percent since the lockdowns in Shanghai began.

“Conditions in China are such that we have virtually no ability to predict our performance in China in the back half of the year,” Starbucks Interim CEO Howard Schultz said.

The coffee giant suspended its guidance for the rest of the fiscal year, or the remaining two quarters. However, Starbucks said it still expected its business dealings in China to grow larger than its homegrown U.S. audience in the long term.

Despite nearly all its final assembly plants in Shanghai being given the green light to restart production, Apple said the lockdowns would likely impact sales in the current quarter from $4 billion to $8 billion — a “substantially” higher number compared to the last quarter. The other factor affecting sales is the ongoing chip shortage, Apple executives said during an earnings call on April 28.

The effects from China’s lockdowns in Shanghai, and now Beijing, have exacerbated the decline in semiconductor imports by over 5 percent in the first two months of 2022 during a global chip shortage.

“Covid is difficult to predict,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said after describing those estimated costs, according to a transcript from the call obtained by StreetAccount.

Apple also blamed ongoing COVID-19 disruptions for affecting consumer demand in China.

People line up to be tested at a nucleic acid testing station in Beijing, China on May 6, 2022. (Image: JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images)

Beijing tightens restrictions

Authorities in China’s capital announced Friday, May 6, that all non-essential services in its sprawling district of Chaoyang, home to embassies and large offices, would close until further notice. Mass testing will also resume in at least four districts over the weekend.

Unlike other countries, which have loosened their controversial pandemic restrictions, the Chinese authorities have doubled down on their ruinous zero-tolerance approach. The latest lockdown in Shanghai was brought on at the end of March as health experts using a more targeted anti-epidemic regime were apparently sidelined in favor of the draconian “zero-COVID” policy.

Meanwhile, organizers of the Asian Games, originally scheduled to take place in the eastern city of Hangzhou in September, also announced today that the event would be postponed until 2023 due to COVID restrictions.

“We will try to cooperate,” Hu, a 42-year-old finance professional from Beijing told Reuters.

“But I also hope that the government can introduce some policies that will not affect the overall life of citizens. After all, we all have mortgages and car loans,” Hu, who gave only her surname in fear of retaliation from the government, said.

Beijing authorities are scrambling to avoid an explosion in cases like the one that forced the financial hub of Shanghai into complete lockdown for over a month, resulting in severe losses to its financial and economic sectors as most stores and businesses were forced to remain closed for weeks on end.

The prolonged lockdowns also negatively impacted the psychological health of its residents, with some committing suicide by jumping off rooftops as they reached their breaking point, and others starving to death after completely running out of food and water, and unable to leave their homes to procure more.

Recently, Shanghai appeared to ease some restrictions, allowing an estimated 4 million people to leave their homes. However, as new infections continued being found, authorities again tightened restrictions in certain areas, notifying residents that the lockdowns would continue until the virus is ”fully brought under control.”

China’s top officials defend ‘zero-COVID’ protocols

After the Standing Committee of the Communist Party’s Politburo held a quarterly economic meeting on April 28, Chinese state media reported Wednesday that China would fight any comment or action that “distorted, doubted or repudiated” its “zero-COVID” policy.

The Politburo, the top-ruling body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), saw its 25 members, including leader Xi Jinping, vow to speed up the implementation of existing tax-cut and supportive policies, as well as the introduction of new monetary policy tools to enhance investments during the fiscal meeting.

According to a statement released after the meeting, new regulatory policies for several industries were also revealed, with tech giants Alibaba and Tencent hoping they will be greeted with good news ahead of next month’s regulatory meeting with the country’s tech sector.

“We must insist on the policies of preventing both inbound infections and a domestic rebound of cases, and [adhere to] dynamic Zero-Covid, doing our best to protect people’s lives and minimize its impact on the national economy and society,” the statement said.

Relaxing COVID controls, however, which are in place in dozens of cities across the world’s second-largest economy, would lead to large-scale infections, it warned. After the Standing Committee of the Communist Party’s Politburo held a quarterly economic meeting on April 28, Chinese state media reported Wednesday that China would fight any comment or action that “distorted, doubted or repudiated” its “zero-COVID” policy.

The Politburo, the top-ruling body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), saw its 25 members, including leader Xi Jinping, vow to speed up the implementation of existing tax-cut and supportive policies, as well as the introduction of new monetary policy tools to enhance investments during the fiscal meeting.

According to a statement released after the meeting, new regulatory policies for several industries were also revealed, with tech giants Alibaba and Tencent hoping they will be greeted with good news ahead of next month’s regulatory meeting with the country’s tech sector.

“We must insist on the policies of preventing both inbound infections and a domestic rebound of cases, and [adhere to] dynamic Zero-Covid, doing our best to protect people’s lives and minimize its impact on the national economy and society,” the statement said.

Relaxing COVID controls, however, which are in place in dozens of cities across the world’s second-largest economy, would lead to large-scale infections, it warned.

Dr. Zelenko – WWIII – Civil War on the Horizon & More Viruses Coming

Maria Zeee Uncensored
— Read on www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/dr-zelenko-wwiii-civil-war-on-the-horizon-more-viruses-coming/

Dr. Zelenko joins Maria Zeee to discuss World War III, the fact that he sees civil war as a real possibility due to the masses waking up to the reality of the Great Reset, the psychopaths behind the NWO and more viruses coming (backed by Bill Gates).

Shining Light on “Dark Winter”

Oxford Academia Cinical Infectious Diseases

Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 34, Issue 7, 1 April 2002, Pages 972–983, https://doi.org/10.1086/339909

Shining Light on “Dark Winter”

Abstract

On 22–23 June 2001, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, in collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Analytic Services Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, held a senior-level exercise entitled “Dark Winter” that simulated a covert smallpox attack on the United States. The first such exercise of its kind, Dark Winter was constructed to examine the challenges that senior-level policy makers would face if confronted with a bioterrorist attack that initiated outbreaks of highly contagious disease. The exercise was intended to increase awareness of the scope and character of the threat posed by biological weapons among senior national security experts and to bring about actions that would improve prevention and response strategies.

On 22–23 June 2001, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies [1], in collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) [2], the Analytic Services (ANSER) Institute for Homeland Security [3], and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism [4], held a senior-level exercise entitled “Dark Winter,” which simulated a covert smallpox attack on the United States. Tara O’Toole and Thomas Inglesby of the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies and Randy Larsen and Mark DeMier of ANSER were the principal designers, authors, and controllers of the Dark Winter exercise. John Hamre of CSIS initiated and conceived of an exercise in which senior former officials would respond to a national security crisis caused by use of a biological weapon. Sue Reingold of CSIS managed administrative and logistical arrangements for the exercise. General Dennis Reimer of the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism provided substantial funding for exercise.

The first such exercise of its kind, Dark Winter was undertaken to examine the challenges that senior-level policy makers would face if confronted with a bioterrorist attack that initiated outbreaks of highly contagious disease. The exercise was intended to increase awareness of the scope and character of the threat posed by biological weapons among senior national security experts and to catalyze actions that would improve prevention and response strategies.

Of all potential biological weapons, smallpox is historically the most ominous and feared [5–7]. It is a disfiguring, communicable disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% [8, 9]. There is no effective medical treatment [9]. The World Health Assembly officially declared smallpox eradicated worldwide in 1980 [10]. Since its eradication, smallpox vaccination programs and vaccine production have ceased around the world [6]. The United States stopped its mandatory vaccination program in 1972. Thus, residents of the United States—and indeed, the global population—are now highly susceptible to an inadvertent or deliberate release of smallpox.

It has been argued that the smallpox virus is the organism least accessible to potential bioterrorists. Since its eradication, the only officially existing stocks of the smallpox virus have been stored in 2 World Health Organization reference laboratories located in the United States and Russia [11]. Many experts believe, however, that the smallpox virus is not confined to these 2 official repositories and may be in the possession of states or subnational groups pursuing active biological weapons programs [12]. Of particular importance and concern is the legacy of the former Soviet Union’s biological weapons program. It is widely known that the former Soviet Union maintained a stockpile of 20 tons of smallpox virus in its biological weapons arsenal throughout the 1970s, and that, by 1990, they had a plant capable of producing 80–100 tons of smallpox per year [13].

Exercise Participants

The 12 participants in Dark Winter portrayed members of the National Security Council (NSC). Each is an accomplished individual who serves or has served in high-level government or military positions. Among these, the Honorable Sam Nunn, former US Senator from Georgia, played the President of the United States, and the Honorable Frank Keating, the governor of Oklahoma, portrayed himself. Five senior journalists who currently work for major networks or news organizations observed the deliberations of the simulated NSC and participated in a mock press conference during the exercise (table 1). In addition, ∼50 people with current or former policy or operational responsibilities related to biological weapons preparedness observed the exercise.

Table 1

Roles of key participants in the Dark Winter exercise.

Roles of key participants in the Dark Winter exercise.

Exercise Design

Dark Winter was a “tabletop” exercise. Decision makers were presented with a fictional scenario and asked to react to the facts and context of the scenario, establish strategies, and make policy decisions. To the extent possible, the decisions made were incorporated into the evolving exercise, so that key decisions affected the evolution and outcomes of the scenario.

Dark Winter was divided into 3 segments and simulated a time span of ∼2 weeks. Each segment portrayed an NSC meeting, which were set several days apart in the story: on 9, 15, and 22 December 2002. The participants began segments 2 and 3 with a review of all events that had taken place in the intervening period since the last meeting. In an effort to mirror the process of NSC meetings, exercise participants received information through a variety of sources. Exercise controllers played the roles of deputies or special assistants, providing briefings of facts and policy options to participants throughout the meetings as needed. Participants were also presented with newspaper summaries and video clips of television news coverage of the epidemic. In addition, specific individuals were given memoranda during the exercise on issues or events that would normally fall within the purview of that individual’s position or agency. Thus, for example, the Director of Central Intelligence was given memos that provided updated intelligence data during the course of the meetings.

Exercise Planning Assumptions

In designing Dark Winter, the authors of the exercise analyzed plausible delivery methods for bioterrorist attacks as well as available scientific and historical data from smallpox outbreaks in the past [14–18]. Numerous factors influence whether a pathogen will successfully invade a host community and how that pathogen will spread once established in that community [19, 20]. Two key assumptions were made that had a direct effect on the scope of the epidemic portrayed in the exercise: the number of people infected in the initial attack and the transmission rate (i.e., the number of people subsequently infected by each person with a case of smallpox). These assumptions were not intended to be definitive mathematical predictors or models and should not be interpreted as such. However, these assumptions were derived from available data and the current understanding of the smallpox virus and, therefore, serve as a foundation for the Dark Winter scenario. These assumptions are further articulated below.

The quantity of available smallpox vaccine also significantly affected the options and outcome of the exercise. The authors posited that the quantity of undiluted vaccine available during the exercise equaled the amount in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stockpile at that time: ∼15.4 million doses of vaccine.

Number of persons infected by the initial attack. In the Dark Winter scenario, 3000 people were infected with the smallpox virus during 3 simultaneous attacks in 3 separate shopping malls in Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. It has been estimated that only a few virions are required to cause human smallpox infection, and thus the total quantity of virus necessary to cause 3000 infections in humans is small [9]. For example, William Patrick, a senior scientist in the US offensive biological weapons program before its termination in 1969, has stated that 1 g of weaponized smallpox would be sufficient to infect 100 people via an aerosol attack [21]. Accordingly, as little as 30 g of smallpox could cause 3000 infections, the number of infections resulting from the initial attack in this exercise. Given the small infectious dose required to cause disease, and considering that the former Soviet Union was able to produce smallpox by the ton, an attack resulting in 3000 infections is scientifically plausible.

Smallpox transmission rate. The transmission rate for smallpox is not a static characteristic of the smallpox virus that can be readily determined, but a complex, dynamic, fluctuating phenomenon contingent on multiple biological (both host and microbial), social, demographic, political, and economic factors [17, 19]. As such, the smallpox transmission rate within any given population is highly context dependent. Therefore, any effort to estimate how smallpox might spread through contemporary societies must account for contextual differences, to the extent possible.

Dark Winter was designed to investigate the challenges following a covert attack with the smallpox virus. As described in the scenario above, the first recognition of a covert attack with smallpox virus will likely occur when people infected in the initial attack begin showing signs of infection and start appearing in emergency departments and doctors’ offices [16]. At this point, those people will have become capable of transmitting smallpox to others. Thus, by the time a covert attack is discovered, the disease will already be spreading to the next generation of cases, known as “second-generation” cases. Given that very few doctors currently practicing medicine have ever seen a case of smallpox, and given that there is currently no widely available, rapid diagnostic test for smallpox, it is likely that the diagnosis of initial smallpox cases will be delayed, further promoting spread of disease. These factors are crucial in estimating the transmission rate in this exercise.

Another important factor in such estimations is the level of national and global susceptibility to smallpox virus infection. Human beings are considered universally susceptible to smallpox virus, unless they have been vaccinated or have been infected previously with an orthopox virus [17]. Given the absence of endemic smallpox in the world and the absence of vaccination programs since the 1970s, the global susceptibility to smallpox virus is higher than it has ever been in modern history [6]. Data from the 2000 US Census indicate that ∼42% of the US population is aged <30 years and, therefore, has never been vaccinated against smallpox [22]. For those who have been vaccinated, the susceptibility to smallpox infection is uncertain, because acquired immunity is known to wane over time. Exactly how long and to what extent smallpox immunity endures is unknown. Epidemiologic data offer some information and insights into the expected duration of immunity and the benefits of past revaccination: “an increased level of protection against smallpox persists for ⩽5 years after primary vaccination and substantial but waning immunity can persist for ⩾10 years….antibody levels after revaccination can remain high longer, conferring a greater period of immunity than occurs after primary vaccination alone” ([23], pp. 3–4).

These findings suggest that those who were vaccinated in the United States before vaccination programs ceased 30 years ago would have waning immunity, although those who were vaccinated ⩾2 times may have maintained higher levels of immunity. A rough estimate of the level of total population herd immunity to smallpox in the United States is 20% (D. A. Henderson, personal communication), a number that will continue to decrease over time. A recent analogous estimate for the United Kingdom is 18% [24]. Thus, an estimated 228 million US citizens would be expected to be highly susceptible to smallpox infection. Some experts have recently argued that immunologic memory in response to vaccination against smallpox may last considerably longer than hypothesized [25] and, consequently, that the level of herd immunity may be higher. However, for now, that remains a matter of conjecture.

The authors of the exercise used a 1 : 10 ratio for the transmission rate of smallpox in Dark Winter, which was based on an analysis of 34 instances of smallpox importation into Europe between 1958 and 1973 [14, 17]. These smallpox importations were instances in which a person contracted smallpox in a country where the disease still occurred naturally and then unknowingly brought the virus back to a country that no longer had endemic smallpox. Ten of those importations occurred in the months June–November, when the smallpox transmission rate is at its seasonal low. These importations were not included in further analysis, because the smallpox attack simulated in Dark Winter took place in December, when the smallpox transmission rate is at its seasonal high. Of the remaining 24 imported cases that occurred during the seasonal high for smallpox transmission (December–May), most were quickly diagnosed and contained [14, 17].

The authors of this exercise determined that 6 of these 24 importations most closely paralleled the conditions and context of the Dark Winter exercise, as well as what should be anticipated and planned for in the event of a smallpox attack on the modern United States. In those 6 importations, health care practitioners were slow to diagnose initial smallpox cases, and infected people had considerable interaction with other people before appropriate infection-control measures were initiated [14]. The number of second-generation cases in those 6 outbreaks ranged from 10 to 19 cases, with an average of 13.3 secondary cases per initial case (95% CI, 9.3–17.3). Gani and Leach [24] have recently analyzed these smallpox importations and have estimated that the transmissibility of smallpox in those outbreaks was 10–12 new infections per infectious person. This estimate may be toward the low error bound, because it does not account for seasonal differences in transmission rates (D. A. Henderson, personal communication).

Of the smallpox importations analyzed, the importation into Yugoslavia in 1972 is particularly instructive because that outbreak encompassed many of the attributes that would be expected if a smallpox outbreak occurred today (e.g., a large number of susceptible people, delayed diagnosis, both hospital and community transmission, wide geographic dispersion of cases, difficulty in contact tracing) [17]. In that outbreak, a man on a religious pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina became infected with smallpox virus while in Iraq and subsequently brought the disease back to Yugoslavia. His infection with smallpox virus went undiagnosed, and he unknowingly infected 11 others, whose infections also went undiagnosed. The smallpox outbreak was not recognized and control measures were not initiated until the advent of the second generation of cases, which comprised 140 new cases (transmission ratio, 1 : 13). Ultimately, a single index case caused 175 cases of smallpox and 35 deaths before the outbreak was brought to an end. Gani and Leach [24] estimated the transmissibility of smallpox in the 1972 Yugoslavia outbreak to be 10.8 new infections per infectious person.

Given the low level of herd immunity to smallpox and the high likelihood of delayed diagnosis and public health intervention, the authors of this exercise used a 1 : 10 transmission rate for Dark Winter and judged that an exercise that used a lower rate of transmission would be unreasonably optimistic, might result in false planning assumptions, and, therefore, would be irresponsible. The authors of this exercise believe that a 1 : 10 transmission rate for a smallpox outbreak prior to public-health intervention may, in fact, be a conservative estimate, given that factors that continue to precipitate the emergence and reemergence of naturally occurring infectious diseases (e.g., the globalization of travel and trade, urban crowding, and deteriorating public health infrastructure) [26, 27] can be expected to exacerbate the transmission rate for smallpox in a bioterrorism event.

Meltzer et al. [28] have reviewed data from a selected series of past smallpox outbreaks and determined that “the average rate of transmission is <2 persons infected per infectious person” ([29], p. v). However, they also conclude that “data suggest that one person can infect many others,” that a “large percentage of the population in the United States is now susceptible” to smallpox, and that “the average transmission rate following a deliberate release of smallpox might be µ2 [persons infected per infectious person]” ([29], p. v). The authors of this article believe that the average past transmission rate calculated by Meltzer et al. [28, 29] does not have significant application to planning for a smallpox attack on the contemporary United States. Their analysis does not adequately account for confounding factors, such as poor herd immunity [24], seasonality, and likelihood of delayed or inadequate vaccination or other public health interventions and, therefore, significantly underestimates the transmission rate that should be anticipated if a smallpox attack occurred today. Gani and Leach [24], on the other hand, incorporated a number of these confounding factors in their mathematical analysis and predicted that the rate of transmission of smallpox in contemporary industrialized societies is 4–6 new infections per infected person, and possibly as high as 10–12 new infections per infected person in the absence of appropriate hospital infection-control procedures.

During Dark Winter, participants were told that the rate of transmission beyond the first-generation to second-generation cases (i.e., to third and fourth generations of cases) would be highly dependent on additional variables (e.g., vaccination and isolation). The Dark Winter exercise ended in the middle of the second generation of cases. However, exercise participants repeatedly requested worst-case scenario predictions for the spread of disease beyond the second generation of cases to guide their key policy decisions. Accordingly, participants were given estimates of the projected number of smallpox cases and deaths, on the assumption that no additional vaccine would become available and no systematic, coordinated isolation procedures could be broadly and effectively enacted—in other words, the worst-case scenario. In these worst-case scenario conditions, it was determined that the transmission rate would continue to be 1 : 10, on average. Therefore, it was estimated that the third generation of cases would comprise 300,000 cases of smallpox and lead to 100,000 deaths, and that the fourth generation of cases could encompass as many as 3,000,000 cases of smallpox and result in as many as 1,000,000 deaths. It was emphasized to participants that these numbers were worst-case projections and could be substantially diminished by institution of large-scale and successful vaccination programs and disease-containment procedures.

Available doses of smallpox vaccine. The United States, through the CDC, maintains a stockpile of 15.4 million doses of smallpox vaccine [30]. Exercise participants were asked to assume that only 12 million doses of vaccine would be available. This estimation was based on practical experience obtained during the smallpox eradication program in the 1960s and 1970s. During the World Health Organization’s smallpox eradication campaign, it was common to lose ∼20% of the available doses of vaccine from any given vial because of unavoidable inefficiencies and waste (D. A. Henderson, personal communication).

Exercise Scenario

The year is 2002 [31]. The Unites States economy is strong. Tensions between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China are high. A suspected lieutenant of Osama bin Laden has recently been arrested in Russia in a sting operation while attempting to purchase 50 kg of plutonium and biological pathogens that had been weaponized by the former Soviet Union. The United Nation’s sanctions against Iraq are no longer in effect, and Iraq is suspected of reconstituting its biological weapons program. In the past 48 h, Iraqi forces have moved into offensive positions along the Kuwaiti border. In response, the United States is moving an additional aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf.

NSC Meeting 1

Information presented to NSC members, 9 December 2002. The 12 members of the NSC gather for what initially was to be a meeting to address the developing situation in southwest Asia but are given the news that a smallpox outbreak is occurring in the United States. In Oklahoma, 20 cases have been confirmed by the CDC, with 14 more suspected. There are also reports of suspect cases in Georgia and Pennsylvania. These cases are not yet confirmed. The initial exposure is presumed to have occurred on or about 1 December, given the 9–17-day incubation period for smallpox (figure 1).

Figure 1

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 50) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 1 (9 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 50) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 1 (9 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

The governor of Oklahoma, who is in Washington, D.C., to deliver a speech, agrees to participate in the NSC meeting to clearly articulate the priorities and needs of his state before rushing home to manage the growing crisis. NSC members are briefed on the status of the outbreak and on smallpox. It is explained that smallpox produces no symptoms at the time of exposure and that fever, malaise, and rash will develop 9–17 days after exposure; that, although vaccination before exposure or up to ∼4–5 days after exposure may prevent or ameliorate disease manifestations, there is no effective treatment once the disease has developed; that the case-fatality rate for smallpox is ∼30%; that smallpox virus is communicable from person to person and is spread at close range by respiratory droplets or, in some instances, at longer range by aerosols (i.e., droplet nuclei) [18]; that although the transmission rate for smallpox virus is a complex dynamic that is dependent on multiple factors, epidemiologic evidence indicates that a single infected person in a highly susceptible population can be expected to infect 10–19 others; and that the US stockpile of smallpox vaccine is 15.4 million doses, but it is estimated that this amount translates to ∼12 million usable doses [8, 9].

The Deputies Committee advises the NSC members on possible disease-containment strategies, including isolation of patients, identification and vaccination of patient contacts, and minimization of public gatherings (e.g., closing schools in affected states). In addition, the Deputies Committee provides the NSC members with 3 vaccine distribution policy options. Policy option 1 is a ring vaccination policy, in which enough vaccine would be distributed to each of the 3 affected states to vaccinate patient contacts and essential personnel, and 2.5 million doses would be set aside for the Department of Defense (DoD). Policy option 2 is a combination ring/mass vaccination policy, in which enough vaccine would be distributed to each of the 3 affected states so that all residents of affected cities could be vaccinated, as well as patient contacts and essential personnel, and 2.5 million doses would be set aside for the DoD. Policy option 3 is a combination ring/mass distribution policy, in which enough vaccine would be distributed to each of the 3 affected states so that all residents of affected cities could be vaccinated, and 2.5 million doses would be set aside for the DoD, and the remaining 47 unaffected states would immediately receive 125,000 doses of vaccine each, to use as they see fit.

Critical debate issues and decisions. The NSC confronts an array of important questions and decisions. With only 12 million doses of vaccine available, what is the best strategy to contain the outbreak? Should there be a national or a state vaccination policy? Is ring vaccination or mass immunization the best policy? How much vaccine, if any, should be held for the DoD? Should health care workers, public safety officials, and elected officials be given priority for vaccination? What about their families? Should vaccine be distributed to all of the states now, or as new cases emerge? What should the size be of the aliquots of vaccine given to each state? Should there be a mandatory or voluntary immunization policy? What is the federal role in emergency response? What are the state roles in emergency response? How are the 2 responses coordinated? Should the National Guard be activated? How best can the Guard be used (under state or under federal control)? What should be done about the developing situation in southwest Asia? What should the public be told? What should our allies be told? Was this a deliberate attack on the United States? If so, who is responsible? Is the nation at war?

The NSC members agree that the public should be fully informed as quickly as possible to maximize public confidence and adherence to disease-containment measures and to minimize the possibility that disease-containment measures would need to be forcibly imposed. NSC members decide to use vaccine distribution policy option 1, which is the ring vaccination policy intended to focus and limit vaccination efforts to those at highest risk of contracting smallpox (e.g., patient contacts and health care and public safety personnel in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) while preserving as much vaccine as possible for use as the epidemic unfolds. NSC members decide that the same directed vaccination strategy will be followed if additional new cases emerge in other cities or states. In addition, NSC members decide to set aside sufficient doses of vaccine for the DoD to meet its immediate needs, with the expectation that this will be ∼1 million doses and with direction to the DoD to determine those needs. NSC members decide to proceed with the deployment of the additional aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf but defer other decisions regarding deployments, pending further developments. NSC officials hope that the people of the United States will view these policy decisions as rational and equitable. The meeting closes as the NSC prepares a presidential statement for the press, detailing their decisions and actions.

NSC Meeting 2

Information presented to NSC members, 15 December 2002 (6 days into the epidemic). A total of 2000 smallpox cases have been reported in 15 states, with 300 deaths (figures 2 and 3). The epidemic is now international, with isolated cases in Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. Both Canada and Mexico request that the United States provide them with vaccine. All of the cases appear to be related to the 3 initial outbreaks in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The public health investigation points to 3 shopping malls as the initial sites of exposure. Only 1.25 million doses of vaccine remain, and public unrest grows as the vaccine supply dwindles. Vaccine distribution efforts vary from state to state, are often chaotic, and lead to violence in some areas. In affected states, the epidemic has overwhelmed the health care systems, and care suffers. The DoD expresses concern about diverting its critical supplies and personnel to the civilian health care system, given the evolving crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Figure 2

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 2000) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 2 (15 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 2000) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 2 (15 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Figure 3

Smallpox cases reported to the National Security Council at meeting 2 (15 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Smallpox cases reported to the National Security Council at meeting 2 (15 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Several international borders are closed to US trade and travelers. Food shortages emerge in affected states as a result of travel problems and store closings. Sporadic violence has been reported against minorities who appear to be of Arab descent. There are no solid leads regarding who may have perpetrated this attack. The government response to the epidemic has been criticized. The media continues its 24-h news coverage of the crisis. Misinformation regarding the smallpox outbreak begins to appear on the Internet and in the media, including false reports of cures for smallpox. Schools are closed nationwide. Public gatherings are limited in affected states. Some states limit travel and nonessential gatherings. The Department of Health and Human Services establishes a National Information Center. Three US drug companies agree to produce new vaccine at the rate of 6 million doses per month, with first deliveries in 5 weeks. Russia offers to provide 4 million doses of vaccine.

Critical debate issues and decisions. NSC officials confront a growing set of challenges and decisions. Given the shortage of vaccine, how can the spread of smallpox be halted? Should patients with smallpox be confined to facilities dedicated to care for them? Should contacts of patients be forced to remain at home or in dedicated facilities until they are proven to be free of smallpox? Should national travel restrictions be imposed? How can disease containment best be balanced against economic disruption and the protection of civil liberties? To what extent can and should the government infringe upon civil liberties? Under what conditions can those powers be exercised? What federal actions can and should be taken to care for the sick? Should the National Guard be federalized (i.e., put under federal control)? What additional assistance can the federal government provide to the states? Should troops continue to deploy overseas to southwest Asia? What should the President tell the people of the United States? Who orchestrated this attack and why? Is the nation at war?

NSC members make a series of important policy decisions. Members decide to leave control of the National Guard as well as decisions on quarantine and isolation in the hands of state officials. Members decide to pursue a crash production program for new smallpox vaccine, despite unresolved liability issues. They also decide to accept smallpox vaccine offered by Russia, provided it passes safety evaluations. In addition, a statement is produced for the President to deliver in a press conference. In the press conference, the President provides an assessment of the gravity of the situation and discusses the government’s response. He appeals to the people of the United States to work together to confront the crisis and to follow the guidance of their elected officials and their public health professionals regarding necessary disease-containment measures.

NSC Meeting 3

Information presented to NSC members, 22 December 2002 (13 days into the epidemic). A total of 16,000 smallpox cases have been reported in 25 states (14,000 within the past 24 h) (figures 4 and 5). One thousand people have died. Ten other countries report cases of smallpox believed to have been caused by international travelers from the United States. It is uncertain whether new smallpox cases have been transmitted by unidentified contacts of initial victims, by contacts who were not vaccinated in time, or by people who received ineffective vaccine, or are due to new smallpox attacks, or some combination of these. Vaccine supplies are depleted, and new vaccine will not be ready for at least 4 weeks. States have restricted nonessential travel. Food shortages are growing in some places, and the national economy is suffering. Residents have fled and are fleeing cities where new cases emerge. Canada and Mexico have closed their borders to the United States. The public demands mandatory isolation of smallpox victims and their contacts, but identifying contacts has become logistically impossible.

Figure 4

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 16,000) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Map showing cumulative reported smallpox cases (n = 16,000) reported to the National Security Council at meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Figure 5

Smallpox cases reported to the National Security Council at meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Smallpox cases reported to the National Security Council at meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise.

Although speculative, the predictions are extremely grim: an additional 17,000 cases of smallpox are expected to emerge during the next 12 days, bringing the total number of second-generation cases to 30,000. Of these infected persons, approximately one-third, or 10,000, are expected to die. NSC members are advised that administration of new vaccine combined with isolation measures are likely to stem the expansion of the epidemic. NSC members ask for worst-case projections. They are advised that in worst-case conditions, the third generation of cases could comprise 300,000 new cases of smallpox and lead to 100,000 deaths, and that the fourth generation of cases could conceivably comprise as many as 3,000,000 cases of smallpox and lead to as many as 1,000,000 deaths. It is again emphasized to participants that these numbers are worst-case projections and can be substantially diminished by large-scale and successful vaccination programs and disease-containment procedures (figure 6).

Figure 6

Smallpox epidemic projections, worst-case scenario (in the absence of disease-containment measures or new vaccine delivery), reported to the National Security Council meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise. Gen, generation of cases; K, thousand.

Smallpox epidemic projections, worst-case scenario (in the absence of disease-containment measures or new vaccine delivery), reported to the National Security Council meeting 3 (22 December 2002) as part of the Dark Winter simulation exercise. Gen, generation of cases; K, thousand.

No solid leads as to who masterminded the attack have emerged. A prominent Iraqi defector claims that Iraq is behind the biological attack. Although the defector cannot offer proof beyond a reasonable doubt, the intelligence community deems his information highly credible. Polls of US citizens show overwhelming support for retribution when the attacker is identified.

The scenario ends when it is announced that the New York Times, the Washington Post, and USA Today have each received an anonymous letter demanding the removal of all US forces from Saudi Arabia and all warships from the Persian Gulf within 1 week. The letters threaten that failure to comply with the demands will result in new smallpox attacks on the US homeland as well as other attacks with anthrax and plague. To prove the veracity of these claims and the seriousness of their threats, each letter contains a genetic fingerprint that matches the fingerprint of the smallpox strain causing the current epidemic, demonstrating that the author of these letters has access to the smallpox strain.

Critical debate issues. With no vaccine remaining and new vaccine not expected for at least 4 weeks, how can the rapidly expanding epidemic be contained? What measures should the federal and state governments take to stop the epidemic, given the scope of the crisis, the lack of remaining vaccine, and rising stakes? Should the United States pull its forces out of the Gulf in response to the anonymous letters? With no conclusive evidence as to who orchestrated the attack, how and should the United States respond? If the United States discovers who is behind the attack, what is the proper response? Would the American people call for response with nuclear weapons?

Lessons of Dark Winter

The authors of this article have drawn a series of lessons from the Dark Winter exercise. These lessons are based on an analysis of comments and decisions made by exercise participants during the exercise, subsequent Congressional testimony by exercise participants, and public interviews given by participants in the months after the exercise [32]. The lessons learned reflect the analysis and conclusions of the authors from the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies and do not necessarily reflect the views of the exercise participants or collaborating organizations.

In this section, these lessons are listed, each accompanied by a short explanatory note and quotations from participants in the exercise to illustrate it. The Dark Winter event did not permit attribution of comments without permission from individual participants. Where comments are ascribed to a particular person, permission has been obtained.

Leaders are unfamiliar with the character of bioterrorist attacks, available policy options, and their consequences. The senior decision makers in Dark Winter were largely unfamiliar with the sequence of events that would follow a bioterrorist attack. Important decisions and their implications were dependent on public health strategies and possible mechanisms to care for large numbers of sick people—issues that the national security and defense communities have not typically analyzed in the past.

“We are used to thinking about health problems as naturally occurring problems outside the framework of a malicious actor….If you’re going against someone who is using a tool that you’re not used to having him use—disease—and using it toward—quite rationally and craftily—…an entirely unreasonable and god-awful end—we are in a world we haven’t ever really been in before” (James Woolsey).

“This was very revealing to me—that there is something out there that can cause havoc in my state that I know nothing about—and, for that matter, the federal family doesn’t know a whole lot [about] either” (Frank Keating).

“My feeling here was the biggest deficiency was, how do I think about this? This is not a standard problem that I’m presented in the national security arena. I know how to think about that, I’ve been trained to think about that…a certain amount of what I think went [on] around this table was, ‘I don’t get it. I’m not in gear in terms of how to think about this problem as a decision-maker.’ So then I get very tentative in terms of what to do” (John White).

“This was unique…[you know] that you’re in for a long term problem, and it’s going to get worse and worse and worse and worse and worse” (Sam Nunn).

After a bioterrorist attack, leaders’ decisions would depend on data and expertise from the medical and public health sectors. In Dark Winter, even after the smallpox attack was recognized, decision makers were confronted with many uncertainties and wanted information that was not immediately available. (In fact, they were given more information on locations and numbers of infected people than would likely be available in reality.)

For example, it was difficult to quickly identify the locations of the original attacks; to immediately predict the likely size of the epidemic on the basis of initial cases; to know how many people were exposed; to find out how many were hospitalized and where; or to keep track of how many had been vaccinated. This lack of information, critical for leaders’ situational awareness in Dark Winter, reflects the fact that few systems exist that can provide a rapid flow of the medical and public health information needed in a public health emergency.

“What’s the worst case? To make decisions on how much risk to take…whether to use vaccines, whether to isolate people, whether to quarantine people….I’ve got to know what the worst case is” (Sam Nunn).

“You can’t respond and make decisions unless you have the crispest, most current, and the best information. And that’s what strikes me as a civil leader…that is…clearly missing” (Frank Keating).

The lack of sufficient vaccine or drugs to prevent the spread of disease severely limited management options. In Dark Winter, smallpox vaccine shortages significantly affected the response available to contain the epidemic, as well as the ability of political leaders to offer reassurance to the American people. The increasing scarcity of smallpox vaccine led to great public anxiety and flight by people desperate to get vaccinated, and it had a significant effect on the decisions taken by political leaders.

“We can’t ration….Who do you choose and who do you not choose to get vaccinated?…People are going to go where the vaccine is. And if they know that you’re going to provide the vaccine to my people, they’ll stay to get vaccinated. I think they’ll run if they think the vaccine is somewhere else” (Frank Keating).

“If we had had adequate vaccine supplies…we would have had more strategies to help deal with this thing and help control the epidemic” (Margaret Hamburg).

The US health care system lacks the surge capacity to deal with mass casualties. In Dark Winter, hospital systems across the country were flooded with demands for patient care. The demand was highest in the cities and states directly attacked, but by the time many victims became symptomatic, they were geographically dispersed, with some having traveled far from the original site of attack. The numbers of people flooding into hospitals across the country included people with common illnesses who feared they had smallpox and people who were well but worried. The challenges of distinguishing the sick from the well and rationing scarce resources, combined with shortages of health care staff, who were themselves worried about becoming infected or bringing infection home to their families, imposed a huge burden on the health care system.

“We think an enemy of the United States could attack us with smallpox or with anthrax—whatever—and we really don’t prepare for it, we have no vaccines for it—that’s astonishing. That’s like, for me, in Oklahoma, where we do have tornadoes, to be assiduously studying hurricanes, or not studying tornadoes” (Frank Keating).

“It isn’t just [a matter of] buying more vaccine. It’s a question of how we integrate these [public health and national security communities] in ways that allow us to deal with various facets of the problem” (James Woolsey).

To end a disease outbreak after a bioterrorist attack, decision makers will require ongoing expert advice from senior public health and medical leaders. The leaders in Dark Winter were confronted with rapidly diminishing supply of smallpox vaccine and an expanding smallpox epidemic. Some members advised the imposition of geographic quarantines around affected areas, but the implications of these measures (e.g., interruption of the normal flow of medicines, food and energy supplies, and other critical needs) were not clearly understood at first. In the end, it is not clear whether such draconian measures would have led to a more effective interruption of disease spread.

“A complete quarantine would isolate people so that they would not be able to be fed, and they would not have medical [care]….So we can’t have a complete quarantine. We are, in effect, asking the governors to restrict travel from their states that would be nonessential. We can’t slam down the entire society” (Sam Nunn).

Federal and state priorities may be unclear, differ, or conflict; authorities may be uncertain; and constitutional issues may arise. In Dark Winter, tensions rapidly developed between state and federal authorities in several contexts. State leaders wanted control of decisions regarding the imposition of disease-containment measures (e.g., mandatory vs. voluntary isolation and vaccination), the closure of state borders to all traffic and transportation, and when or whether to close airports. Federal officials argued that such issues were best decided on a national basis to ensure consistency and to give the President maximum control of military and public-safety assets. Leaders in states most affected by smallpox wanted immediate access to smallpox vaccine for all citizens of their states, but the federal government had to balance these requests against military and other national priorities. State leaders were opposed to federalizing the National Guard, which they were relying on to support logistical and public supply needs. A number of federal leaders argued that the National Guard should be federalized.

“My fellow governors are not going to permit you to make our states leper colonies. We’ll determine the nature and extent of the isolation of our citizens….You’re going to say that people can’t gather. That’s not your [the federal government’s] function. That’s the function, if it’s the function of anybody, of state and local officials” (Frank Keating).

“Mr. President, this question got settled at Appomattox. You need to federalize the National Guard” (George Terwilliger).

“We’re going to have absolute chaos if we start having war between the federal government and the state government” (Sam Nunn).

The individual actions of US citizens will be critical to ending the spread of contagious disease; leaders must gain the trust and sustained cooperation of the American people. Dark Winter participants worried that it would not be possible to forcibly impose vaccination or travel restrictions on large groups of the population without their general cooperation. To gain that cooperation, the President and other leaders in Dark Winter recognized the importance of persuading their constituents that there was fairness in the distribution of vaccine and other scarce resources, that the disease-containment measures were for the general good of society, that all possible measures were being taken to prevent the further spread of the disease, and that the government remained firmly in control despite the expanding epidemic.

“The federal government has to have the cooperation from the American people. There is no federal force out there that can require 300,000,000 people to take steps they don’t want to take” (Sam Nunn).

Conclusion

In conducting the Dark Winter exercise, the intention was to inform the debate on the threat posed by biological weapons and to provoke a deeper understanding of the numerous challenges that a covert act of bioterrorism with a contagious agent would present to senior level policy makers and elected officials. Since the Dark Winter exercise, the country has endured the horrific events of 11 September, as well as anthrax attacks through the US postal system. Bioterrorism is no longer just the subject of war games and the source of “futuristic and disturbing topics for…[Congressional] committee meetings” ([33], p. 2454). Many of the challenges and difficulties faced by the Dark Winter participants, unfortunately, have been paralleled in the response to the recent anthrax attacks. The Dark Winter exercise offers instructive insights and lessons for those with responsibility for bioterrorism preparedness in the medical, public health, policy, and national security communities and, accordingly, helps shine light on possible paths forward.

References: https://thetrailblazingpatriot.wordpress.com/2022/05/04/shining-light-on-dark-winter/

MASSIVE: WORLD RENOWNED DOCTOR BLOWS LID OFF OF COVID VACCINE

Looking back to when this came out (May 27, 2021) It’s amazing how right he was! And still is!

Dr. Peter McCullough

Dr. Peter McCullough – Video WATCH THE FULL 1hour 45min INTERVIEW HERE:

MUST WATCH: Dr. Peter McCullough discusses the dangers of the novel COVID vaccine and it’s roll out.

This product that had minimal testing but is still being pushed on the masses.

Dr. Peter McCullough has been the world’s most prominent and vocal advocate for early outpatient treatment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infection in order to prevent hospitalization and death.

On May 19, 2021, he was interviewed regarding his efforts as a treating physician and researcher. From his unique vantage point, he has observed and documented a PROFOUNDLY DISTURBING POLICY RESPONSE to the pandemic — a policy response that may prove to be

Dr. McCullough is an internist, cardiologist, epidemiologist, and Professor of Medicine at Texas A & M College of Medicine, Dallas, TX USA. Since the outset of the pandemic,

Dr. McCullough has been a leader in the medical response to the COVID-19 disaster and has published “Pathophysiological Basis and Rationale for Early Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infection” the first synthesis of sequenced multidrug treatment of ambulatory patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the American Journal of Medicine and subsequently updated in Reviews in Cardiovascular Medicine.

He has 40 peer-reviewed publications on the infection and has commented extensively on the medical response to the COVID-19 crisis in The Hill and on FOX NEWS Channel.

On November 19, 2020, TX Dr. McCullough testified in the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs and throughout 2021 in the Texas Senate Committee on Health and Human Services, Colorado General Assembly, and New Hampshire Senate concerning many aspects of the pandemic response.

Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH, FACP, FACC, FAHA, FCRSA, FCCP, FNKF, FNLA Professor of Medicine, Texas A & M College of MedicineBoard Certified Internist and Cardiologist President Cardiorenal Society of America Editor-in-Chief, Reviews in Cardiovascular MedicineEditor-in-Chief, Cardiorenal MedicineSenior Associate Editor, American Journal of CardiologyFor more information about Dr. McCullough, please visit: heartplace.com/dr-peter-a-mccullough

Yuval Hariri Tells You What The Vaccines Really Do

Yuval Hariri Tells You What The Vaccines Really Do

The guru of our corrupt globalist elite really hates human beings too

Emerald Robinson

20 hr ago

Let’s review what we do know about the new COVID gene alteration therapies that really distinguishes them from actual vaccines, shall we?

They don’t prevent you from getting COVID.

They don’t prevent you from spreading COVID.

They don’t limit the severity of COVID if you get infected.

In fact, they don’t do anything that vaccines are supposed to do. This raises aprofound question: what are they really supposed to do?

There happens to be an Israeli professor of history who has profoundly influenced Klaus Schwab and the global cartel of trans-humanist oligarchs — and he’s more than happy to tell you what the vaccines actually do. He’s the leading thinker, the arch-guru, of the Silicon Valley dictator set. His name is Yuval Hariri.

April 20th 2022

At one globalist conference, he explained exactly what the COVID pandemic was being used by the globalist elites to do: “COVID is critical because this is what convinces people to accept, to legitimize, total biometric surveillance. If we want to stop this epidemic — we need to not just monitor people, we need to monitor what is happening underneath their skin.”

Yuval Hariri has said similar things at many other conferences and lectures as well: “Maybe in a couple of decades, when people look back, the thing they will remember from the COVID crisis, is: this is the moment when everything went digital. This was the moment when everything became monitored — that we agreed to be surveilled all the time. Not just in authoritarian regimes but even in democracies. This was the moment when surveillance went under the skin.”

Do you see? COVID is not the “accidental” release of a bioweapon derived from a Chinese bat coronavirus — it’s actually an opportunity for governments and global corporations to create a total surveillance system around the world that will ultimately control every human being. 

This sounds like science fiction. It is not. There are secret ingredients in the COVID vaccines like graphene oxide (that the corporate media tells you is a conspiracy theory of course!) that can transmit data outside the body — like your heart rate.

What do the COVID vaccines really do? They usher in the Age of Total Surveillance.

Professor Hariri explained this new and terrifying reality (that he wants to usher into the world) to the World Economic Forum in 2018 where our corrupt elites embraced the idea that they would be the immortal masters of the world while they enslaved the rest of us in their new “digital dictatorship.”

Professor Hariri is not alone in his depravity — just check out what DARPA is working on. Needless to say: DARPA (and the Pentagon more broadly) is not really in the healthcare business and couldn’t be less interested in “healing bodies” more effectively. This is simply the cover, the excuse, for the radical intrusion into every sphere of human life which can only be called: totalitarian techno-fascism.

Hariri is not really a humanist either— he doesn’t have any love for humanity. Nor is he really interested in the preservation of democracy. He is the psuedo-prophet of a one world government that would enslave humanity forever using a version of communist China’s social credit system to keep the masses under control. 

For instance, Professor Hariri predicts a future where the machines we have created have no more use for humans (because of Artifical Intelligence) and so “by 2050 a new class of people might emerge – the useless class. People who are not just unemployed, but unemployable.” Why would we allow such a future? The premise of the question is not something Hariri explains for obvious reasons. Why would he? He’s on the side of the machines.

Technology is going to turn the Davos crowd into gods, and the working class into peasants to be eliminated as so many “useless eaters.” After all, we humans “should get used to the idea that we are no longer mysterious souls.” We are “hackable animals” so Hariri wants you to get ready to be hacked.

The best way to describe Hariri’s worldview is that he is a nihilist — but nihilism doesn’t really capture how dark and dangerous his thinking happens to be: “As far as we can tell from a purely scientific viewpoint, human life has absolutely no meaning. Humans are the outcome of blind evolutionary processes that operate without goal or purpose. Our actions are not part of some divine cosmic plan, and if planet earth were to blow up tomorrow morning, the universe would probably keep going about its business as usual. As far as we can tell at this point, human subjectivity would not be missed. Hence any meaning that people inscribe to their lives is just a delusion.”

People like Hariri who believe that nothing is real and that everything is permitted are the most dangerous people of all — traditional morality to them is simply a construct that only the weak obey. Hariri’s atheism wants to touch the abyss, and summon the darkness. Even his pessimism is pessimistic. For him, life has no meaning. Free will is an illusion. God does not exist. Religions are transparently absurd attempts to create meaning. Truth is a fiction — only power is real. Humanity is not to be pitied so much as controlled by a superior race of the wealthy and the powerful that (no surprise) enjoy paying exorbitant fees to hear Professor Hariri discuss their future as gods on earth.

Biohackinfo 🇸🇪 @biohackinfo “The really big revolution will be when the #AI Revolution merges with the #Biotech Revolution, and goes under the skin.” -Noah Yuval Hariri

Yuval Hariri has only one soft spot, and that’s for animals in our food supply. He’s a vegan apparently: “Domesticated chickens and cattle may well be an evolutionary success story, but they are also among the most miserable creatures that ever lived. The domestication of animals was founded on a series of brutal practices that only became crueller with the passing of the centuries.”

“Let’s enslave humanity, and spare the chickens” is a strange message because chickens and cattle are animals that should be spared in Hariri’s view — but then humans are animals too (Hariri says this again and again) but we don’t deserve any sympathy in the final analysis.

One can’t help but notice the obvious self-hatred contained in these elementary philosophical contradictions that any 5 year old child would notice instantly. Hariri is not a great thinker. He’s not even a sub-par historian. He’s the limp-wristed avatar of a globalist cabal (Bill Gates, Xi Jinping, Klaus Schwab, Larry Fink) that seeks to destroy Western democracies in order to rule behind the scenes like so many Wizards of Oz.

These people are, in other words, the enemies of all humanity.

Fauci Says The Pandemic Is Over… Then Walks It Back After He Is Dressed Down By The White House

By Adam Wilson | Apr 28, 2022

Fauci has shielded himself from criticism by claiming that he is not beholden to politicians and that his recommendations are solely based on the ‘science.’

During Trump’s presidency, Fauci consistently contradicted Trump, including when Trump was attempting to get the US past Covid-19 so that authoritarian lockdowns could be lifted.

It turns out that Fauci, like other government bureaucrats who claim to be apolitical, is willing to tweak his messaging when he is pressured by Democratic politicians and liberal activists.

Last week, Fauci said that the United States was ‘out of the pandemic phase’ and that infections and deaths were at a low level.

“We are certainly right now in this country out of the pandemic phase,” Fauci said. “Namely we don’t have 900,000 new infections a day and tens and tens and tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths. We are at a low level right now.”

“So, if you’re saying, are we out of the pandemic phase in this country, we are. What we hope to do, I don’t believe, and I have spoken about this widely, we’re not going to eradicate this virus,” he said. “If we can keep that level very low, and intermittently vaccinate people — and I don’t know how often that would have to be.”

Then, the White House contradicted him, saying that the pandemic ‘isn’t over. Biden clearly intends to milk the pandemic for all its worth with midterms coming up and isn’t willing to let ‘science’ get in the way.

“COVID isn’t over, and the pandemic isn’t over,” Psaki told reporters on Wednesday.

Presumably, Fauci got a private dressing down from the Biden White House after they were forced to contradict him.  Yesterday, he walked back his comments and claimed that he only intended to say that the ‘acute’ phase of the pandemic is over.

“I want to clarify one thing,” Fauci told NPR on Wednesday. “I probably should have said the acute component of the pandemic phase, and I understand how that can lead to some misinterpretation.”

It’s great to know that we are basing the science on what a man who can’t even string a coherent sentencetogether wants it to be.

Source: https://100percentfedup.com/fauci-says-the-pandemic-is-over-then-walks-it-back-after-he-is-dressed-down-by-the-white-house/

REPORT: 33-Year-Old Mother Paralyzed Following COVID Jab

REPORT: 33-Year-Old Mother Paralyzed Following COVID Jab

Another day, another tragedy. It’s become an all-too-familiar story by now.

Her doctor, her government and the mainstream media – all assured her it would be OK, and that the new experimental mRNA synthetic pharmaceutical cocktail was ‘safe and effective.’ In a mere moment, her entire life turned on a dime.

Just 12 hours after receiving her experimental COVID-19 gene therapy injection manufactured by Pfizer, 33-year-old mother Rachel Cecere’s body began rebelling against her, and she was later diagnosed with “acute distress to the nervous system.” Rachel found herself paralyzed from the neck down, but three weeks later she was able to regain strength in her upper body, except for her left hand.

The timing of the onset of her disease just after receiving the experimental ‘vaccine’ is suspect to say the least. Was her disability brought on by the jab? If so, who will be held accountable?

She is not alone either. To date the various vaccine adverse reactions databases in the US, UK, and EU alone contain, on the aggregate, millions of reported injuries, as well as tens of thousands of deaths following the experimental shot.

She asks in desperation, “When is this going to get better?” Watch: 

This video was published at Odysee on February 2, 2022

READ MORE VACCINE NEWS AT: 21st Century Wire Vaccine Files

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Eugenics, Infertility & Population Growth CRISIS- Part 3

Eugenics, Infertility & Population Growth CRISIS- Part 3

July 9, 2019 / 2 Comments

Since the dawn of eugenics, they’ve tried to trace the pedigree and traits of human beings so as to control the masses. Through DNA, they have not only accomplished this, they have extended a branch to the population to show off their ancestral trees. Much like in the days of pedigree fairs, people had no idea what they were signing up for.

• Bill Gates funded scientists to study 40,000 DNA samples from 23andMe and assessed genes having to do with preterm labor and God knows what else.

• Billionaires, government and big pharma are investing in biotechnology companies that transform cells and rewrite DNA, amassing the world’s largest stores of “usable” designer genetic code.

• 30 million Americans have already voluntarily submitted their DNA to the likes of 23andMe, Ancestry, MyHeritage, Genomelink and several others.

READ Parts 1 & 2 first:

Part 1: Eugenics, Infertility & Population Growth Crisis (extensive historical timeline)

Part 2: The Rockefeller Foundation’s Plan to Sterilize Through Anti-fertility Vaccines & Crops

DNA Database Collection – A Scientists Dream

The history of eugenics, published in the eugenics archive, explains that eugenics researchers had attempted to trace the inheritance of a trait through a family tree, or pedigree, by analyzing their genetics. However, at that time they were not aware that DNA was the molecule of heredity. Today, they use these DNA “markers” to follow trait inheritance. Back in the early 1900s they had to conduct interviews on medical histories, which were submitted to the Eugenics Record Office in New York, where they stored documentation on family genealogy with traits and medical conditions.

Eugenicists, mostly known as “philanthropists” in this day and age, spent decades compiling information on populations, under the guise of “medical records.” From the moment you step into a doctor’s office, you are briskly filling out forms, describing yours and your families entire health background. From school forms to maternal databases, the Electronic Health Records (EHR) put in place by Barack Obama, and the mandatory diabetes registry Thomas Frieden established in New York, the number of databases collecting data on every individual – is frankly, off the charts. Rest assured, whatever isn’t collected directly from you, is being collected by big tech, all the way down to what road you are driving down to what pair of underwear you purchased online yesterday. There is a reason for all of this data collection. What communities are the poorest? What people are carrying diseases or deformities? What’s everyone’s race? But indeed, it didn’t stop there. They needed more – they wanted your DNA.

In years that followed, biotech companies sprouted up, DNA databases were growing wings, and genetic testing services became wildly popular, as the naïve began submitting their saliva samples to learn about their ancestry and personal traits. Don’t feel bad if you were one of the “naïve,” – while you were doling out your privacy, they were duping millions of other Americans as well. Little did everyone know that all of this data is being stored, bloodlines are being documented, genetic markers traced, scientists are analyzing it, and law enforcement is using it in conjunction with their national database because it provides more specific markers. Sure, solving a cold case file on a murderer is fantastic news, and curing cancer would be phenomenal if they were ever to release the cure, but what else might they be compiling all of this data for? 

For those claiming “tinfoil hat,” here’s a quick lesson in how capitalism works. You don’t give away the farm for free unless you are getting something spectacular in return. Ask yourself – why do they want all of this data? Are they looking to heal the world OR shape the world? 

Companies such as 23andMe, Ancestry, MyHeritage, Genomelink, Promethease, Lifenome, GEDmatch, Family Tree DNA, and numerous others have flooded the market, enticing people to submit their saliva samples for FREE testing and extraordinary information on their heritage, traits, and health. Isn’t that sublime? And, they’ve become such a hit, that many of them have setup affiliate marketing so that others can promote this wonderful service of collecting your genetics.

For example, Genomelink tells you that you should “go beyond genealogy and health risk to discover how DNA shapes aspects of your daily life that you care about. Instant access to 25 trait reports upon uploading your raw data, with 100+ total trait reports available.” What can you learn about yourself, or shall we say… what will they learn about you? According to their website, they can assess your intelligence, personality, physical traits, and even food & nutrition. Isn’t that something? They don’t gloat about the fact that they can also trace your genealogy, while telling you how “intelligent” you may be. Genomelink is very excited about the fact that almost 30 million Americans have already been tested in the Unites States alone.

If you sign up with Lifenome, you will receive a comprehensive analysis of your DNA on nutrition, fitness, skincare, allergy and personality. Its’ wonderful AI+Genomics engine can assess the cumulative effect of multiple genetic variants that may just have an impact on your wellness. 

In Bill and Melinda Gates 2019 annual letter, titled ‘We Didn’t See This Coming,’ they talk about at-home DNA tests under “Surprise #2.” The Gates Foundation helped fund a 23andMe study, whereby scientists reviewed more than 40,000 samples and discovered a potential link between preterm labor and six genes – including one that regulates how the body uses the mineral selenium. Apparently, some people have a gene that doesn’t allow them to process selenium properly. Therefore, mothers who carry that gene are more likely to give birth early, suggesting selenium plays a factor in when a woman begins labor. While their researchers work on breakthroughs for this, a team at Stanford is developing a blood test that can determine how soon a woman will give birth. 

The Gates are essentially funding and running the worldwide vaccine industry, which is causing a great deal of injury – in some cases permanent, causing infertility, and even death, with a very good chance that it is also increasing the child mortality rate in developing countries. So why not “invest” in cures for child mortality as well? Oh, but they have. In fact, just this month they gave another $180 million to CHAMPS, a global health network headquartered in the Emory Global Health Institute. That brings their investment in CHAMPS up to $271 million to date.

While all of these services purport ways of helping you to become the best “you” possible, they are cataloging terabytes of personal data, family history, ancestry, intelligence, medical markers, and a myriad of other traits. Scientists everywhere are having the time of their lives. Some want this data so bad, they are willing to offer this DNA collecting service for free, and of course for those that charge, you can easily find these kits at your local Walgreens or online at Amazon.

Food for thought for the next time you see an ad for “find out all about your ancestry!” – while we collect your DNA.

Biotech Companies Flourish

From biotechnology to genomes and genetics, it’s been all the buzz for scientists, philanthropists, and the wealthy. Companies have sprung up everywhere since the last 70s, just a few years after the sterilization law was repealed. Genetech was the first publicly traded biotech company in 1980.

For six billionaires, their intrigue continued to grow, along with their investments. Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Michael Bloomberg, Peter Theil, and Walt Disney’s great-nephew Tim Disney have all invested in various biotech companies over the past few years. In fact, according to Family Capital’s estimate, roughly 20% of investments done by family offices goes into biotech or related industries. Investments in synthetic biology start-ups has increased from $374 million in 2012 to $1.2 billion in 2016, according to data from CB insights.

What is biotech exactly? It is the exploitation of biological processes for industrial and other purposes, especially the genetic manipulation of microorganisms for the production of antibiotics, hormones, and “other such needs.” According to Forbes, these are the top tenbiotech companies in the U.S., but rest assured, there are plenty more out there, and some of these have global locations.

Bill Gates for example, invested $275 million into Ginko Bioworks, which is a company that designs custom microbes that could one day be used to build living things out of nothing. How do they achieve this? They use “genetic engineering to design and print new DNA for a variety of organisms – from plants to bacteria – that can then be used for anything from killing antibiotic-resistant germs to producing artificial sweetener and cheaper perfume.” They reprogram the DNA of plants and other organisms. Even Bayer jumped on board for a cool $100 million investment into Ginko.

Ginko Bioworks also works with the US Department of Defense to custom-design bacteria for probiotics that can treat antibiotic-resistant germs. In fact, they survived off of government research grants after MIT scientists created the company in 2009, which allowed them to build the automated tools they needed to collect genetic information from organisms, transform cells and rewrite DNA. As of 2018, they were on target to amass one of the world’s largest stores of “usable” designer genetic code, as their computers print their own DNA.

Ginko Bioworks is one of numerous biotechcompanies that Bill Gates invests in. He’s also involved with the fertilizer industry, lab grown meatvaccines, big pharma, climate change and sustainabilityreproductive health, population control, creating a global network of hospitalsand clinics in Africa and other countries, and countless other endeavors that have a direct impact on human lives. Gates also started “The Giving Pledge,” whereby 204 of the wealthiest individuals in the world, from 23 countries, are pooling their money into “philanthropic” adventures across the globe. Some of its members are Michael Bloomberg, Richard Branson, Edgar Bronfman, Warren Buffet, Victor Pinchuk, Ted Turner, and Mark Zuckerberg just to name a few. The man has his finger on the pulse of nearly every health-related industry that makes decisions about what humans consume, ingest, inject, and are exposed to.

DNA and genetics are the name of the game. How do these tie into vaccines, GMOs, and even Planned Parenthood? Speaking of Planned Parenthood, Gates ties to Planned Parenthood go beyond the Global Fund. In 2003, Bill Moyers interviewed Bill Gates, on the PBS show “NOW with Bill Moyers”, in a special 60-minute episode titled, “Health, Wealth and Bill Gates.” Here is the complete transcript. In this interview Bill Gates stated:

When I was growing up, my parents were always involved in various volunteer things. My dad was head of Planned Parenthood. And it was very controversial to be involved with that. And so, it’s fascinating. At the dinner table my parents are very good at sharing the things that they were doing. And almost treating us like adults, talking about that.

My mom was on the United Way group that decides how to allocate the money and looks at all the different charities and makes the very hard decisions about where that pool of funds is going to go. So, I always knew there was something about really educating people and giving them choices in terms of family size.

“Gene Therapy” via Vaccines is on The Brink of Human Trials:

In 2015 Scripps Research developed an artificial antibody to inactivate the HIV virus. “By delivering synthetic genes into the muscles of the monkeys, the scientists are essentially re-engineering the animals to resist disease.” They are testing it on Ebola, Malaria, Influenza and Hepatitis as well. The first human trial, called immunoprophylaxis by gene transfer (I.G.T.) is underway and several new ones are planned. Chief scientific officer at Sanofi stated, “It could revolutionize the way we immunize against public health threats in the future.” The synthetic gene is incorporated into the recipient’s own DNA.

Coincidentally, 35 ambassadors from other countries just visited Scripps Research Institute on June 17, 2019 while on a State Department Tour. According to their press release, “the visit was intended to build relationships between the ambassadors and San Diego’s biotech companies, nonprofit and academic institutes, and leaders, and in the process open doors for local organizations eager to develop global partnerships and investment possibilities.”

In a 2015 Scripps press release, they announced the nearly $6 million from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation that they were awarded for this revolutionary vaccine development. Over the past five years, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has given $174 million in grants to Scripps.

In 2017 Scripps Department of Immunology and Microbiology on the Florida campus of the Scripps Research Institute received $4.8 millionfrom the National Institutes of Health to support a five-year project to bring gene therapy immunizations, beginning with an HIV vaccine, closer to human clinical trials

Are all of these biotech companies and “philanthropists” trying to heal the world OR shape the world?

Click Here for Part 4 of 6 – Population Control on Multiple Fronts (you do not want to miss this one!)

Download this full 6-part report in PDF format from the Bookshop. >

Eugenics, Infertility & Population Growth CRISIS- Part 2

Eugenics, Infertility & Population Growth- CRISIS Part 2

July 5, 2019 / 4 Comments

The Rockefellers were just getting started with their eugenics plan back in the early 1900s, and by the time the 1960s rolled around, they were full steam ahead with their population control agenda – including the development of anti-fertility vaccines for both men and women.  

• In 1968 the Rockefeller Foundation stated that the oral pill and IUD will turn out to be impracticable on a mass scale. They set out to fix that.

 • In their 1986 annual report they admitfunding research into the use of fertility-reducing compounds in relation to food for “widespread use.”

• By 1988 they were funding the first phase of anti-fertility vaccines for women.

• In 1991 a “Task Force on Vaccines for Fertility Regulation” was created with the Rockefeller Foundation, WHO, World Bank and UN Population Fund. Mind you, this is 20 years after sterilization laws were repealed.

READ ‘Eugenics, Anti-fertility & Population Growth Crisis’ Part 1 first, as it covers the extensive historical timeline leading up to these critical events.

The Rockefeller Foundation’s Plan to Sterilize Through Anti-fertility Vaccines & Crops

In a brilliant report by journalist Jurriaan Maessen, he compiled and connected critical data pertaining to the Rockefeller’s anti-fertility plans. Some of the source links were removed, so I have reviewed all of the content, traced the annual reports, uploaded them, and linked them accordingly below – in addition to adding some other findings. I highly recommend reviewing the full, extensive report. Below are some key highlights.

In a 1968 Report by the Rockefeller Foundation on ‘Problems of Population,’ it definitively states:

Experience of the past few years indicates that the oral pill and the IUD, while far superior in many respects to contraceptive methods available previously, have serious drawbacks that limit their effectiveness. We are faced with the danger that within a few years these two ‘modern’ methods, for which such high hopes have been held, will in fact turn out to be impracticable on a mass scale. It is clear that major improvements in contraceptive methodology are required.

The male pill is being very little investigated; several types of drugs are known to diminish male fertility, but those that have been tested have serious problems of toxicity. Very little work is in progress on immunological methods, such as vaccines, to reduce fertility, and much more research is required if a solution is to be found here.


The foundation will endeavor to assist in filling this important gap in several ways:

1) “Seeking out or encouraging the development of, and providing partial support to, a few centres of excellence in universities and research institutions in the United States and abroad in which the methods and points of view of molecular biology are teamed with the more traditional approaches of histology, embryology, and endocrinology in research pertinent to development of fertility control methods;”

2) “Supporting research of individual investigators, oriented toward development of contraceptive methods or of basic information on human reproduction relevant to such developments;”

3) “Encouraging, by making research funds available, as well as by other means, established and beginning investigators to turn their attention to aspects of research in reproductive biology that have implications for human fertility and its control;”

4) “Encouraging more biology and biochemistry students to elect careers in reproductive biology and human fertility control, through support of research and teaching programs in departments of zoology, biology, and biochemistry.”


In the Rockefeller Foundation’s 1988 annual report they state that their “population division” was making progress: 

India’s National Institute of Immunology (in New Delhi) successfully completed in 1988 the first phase of trials with three versions of an anti-fertility vaccine for women. Sponsored by the government of India and supported by the Foundation…” The National Institute of Health (NIH) published the abstract on ‘Anti-fertility Vaccines’ in 1989. “Vaccines are under development for the control of fertility in males and females.


In 1991, the WHO “Task Force on Vaccines for Fertility Regulation,” consisting of the World Health Organization, World Bank and UN Population Fund, reported:

Basic and clinical research on the development of birth control vaccines directed against the gametes or the preimplantation embryo. These studies have involved the use of advanced procedures in peptide chemistry, hybridoma technology and molecular genetics as well as the evaluation of a number of novel approaches in general vaccinology. As a result of this international, collaborative effort, a prototype anti-HCG vaccine is now undergoing clinical testing, raising the prospect that a totally new family planning method may be available before the end of the current decade.


The Biotechnology and Development Monitor reported:

The Task Force acts as a global coordinating body for anti-fertility vaccine R&D in the various working groups and supports research on different approaches, such as anti-sperm and anti-ovum vaccines and vaccines designed to neutralize the biological functions of hCG. The Task Force has succeeded in developing a prototype of an anti-hCG-vaccine.


Their “strategy” states: “Some prototype vaccines have undergone or are currently undergoing clinical trials in several countries. The entirely new immunological approach is based on the idea that a long-term contraceptive method, intended for use in family planning programmes in countries with low levels of medical care, should require little motivation of the user, should be cheap, and should be simple to apply by the provider. The approach is an integral part of the strategy of demographic control…”

Under the report’s section titled ‘Actors Involved,’ it goes on to list the governments of Sweden, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Germany and Canada, as well as the UNFPA and the World Bank. It also includes The Population Council of the United States being funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, USAID, the National Institute of Immunology in India which is also funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Canadian International Development Research Centre, the US Contraceptive Development Program, and the US Center for Population Research at the National Institute of Child Health and Development.

In addition to the funders and supporters of this Task Force, they had setup clinical research and clinical trials with anti-fertility vaccines based at universities in Kenya, Germany, and France. 

Between 1973–1993 they had spent between $10 and $11 million on anti-fertility vaccines.

In the 1986 Rockefeller Foundation annual report, the organization admits funding research into the use of fertility-reducing compounds in relation to food for “widespread use”:

Male contraceptive studies are focused on gossypol, a natural substance extracted from the cotton plant, and identified by Chinese researchers as having an anti-fertility effect on men. Before widespread use can be recommended, further investigation is needed to see if lowering the dosage can eliminate undesirable side-effects without reducing its effectiveness as a contraceptive. The Foundation supported research on gossypol’s safety, reversibility and efficacy in seven different 1986 grants.


In the RF’s 1988 annual report, gossypol as a contraceptive was also elaborated upon (page 22):

Gossypol, a natural substance found in the cotton plant, continues to show promise as an oral contraceptive for men. Because it suppresses sperm production without affecting sex hormone levels, it is unique among the experimental approaches to fertility control in men. Foundation-funded scientists worldwide have assembled an array of information about how gossypol works, and studies continue on a wide variety of its clinical applications. Dose reduction is being investigated to reduce health risks associated with the use of gossypol.

Though they allege that the development of gossypol as an anti-fertility compound was halted in the 1990s, the cottonseed containing the substance was selected for mass distribution in early 2000s, under the guise of claiming that cottonseed could help defeat hunger and poverty. Genetic engineering ensued to allegedly reduce gossypol in cottonseed. But did they? Based on research, and given the current infertility rate in women and significantly reduced sperm rate in men, it wouldn’t seem to be the case.

Read the full, extensive report this journalist documented, with additional source links. The story continues.
Hillary Rodham Clinton and Laurance Rockefeller

NOTE:
The Rockefeller Foundation, World Health Organization, the World BankGAVI, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Clinton Foundation, USAID, Planned Parenthood, Eugenicists, big pharma, countless NGOs and foundations, multiple scientific research laboratories, big pharma, “philanthropists,” governments, Ivy league colleges and universities, and numerous individuals who have been in leadership at these organizations, creating off-shoots and additional NGOs, consist of people who do not have your best interest at heart, lie and deceive, deny and manipulate, and have brought endless levels of illness and infertility to countries across the world. If you cannot see this, you have lost your way. There are no “safety measures” or “follow-ups” in the research they do, for they do not care of the side effects and detriment it may cause, because it only aligns to further their goal. Just as the judge who presided over the most recent lawsuit against Monsanto stated, this is the case with many in positions of power:

Monsanto does not particularly care whether its product is in fact giving people cancer, focusing instead on manipulating public opinion and undermining anyone who raises genuine and legitimate concerns.

Click Here to go to Part 3 of 6 – DNA Collection and Biotechnology Companies

Download this full 6-part report in PDF format from the Bookshop. >

Bill GateseugenicsinfertilityPlanned Parenthoodpopulation growthRockefellerUSAIDvaccinesWHOBy Corey Lynn

COREY LYNN

Corey Lynn is an investigative journalist. Support her work by becoming a Patron or making a donation. Follow her at coreysdigs.com, on Gab, GabTV, and YouTube.

Bad Things Coming for Those Responsible? – Pfizer and Moderna CFOs Run for the Exits

Merissa Hansen: The CFOs of Pizer and Moderna have both resigned over the past 72 hours.

Luke Rudkowski: “There were literal media organizations telling the [British] government to stop releasing the data in the United Kingdom, which showed that the vaccine actually [does more harm than good] in certain age groups… There’s a lot of ruling elites that want to keep your mind away from their KILLING of you, and they distract you with a lot of utter nonsense.”

Full Video: https://wearechange.org/mike-tyson-is-warning-about-rich-people-hunting-poor-people/

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CDC and FDA ‘altered’ Covid guidance and even ‘suppressed’ findings while under political pressure, bombshell report suggests: Whistle-blower employees say they feared ‘retaliation’ if they spoke up

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10759403/CDC-FDA-altered-Covid-guidance-pressure-bombshell-report-claims.html

  • Federal investigators interviewed top-level directors and managers at agencies
  • They also opened a hotline for employees to report ‘political interference’
  • Government Accountability Office uncovered widespread allegations of this
  • They raised fears that Covid guidance may have been ‘altered or suppressed’
  • GAO warned none of the agencies had systems in place for reporting allegations
  • Said they had failed to train staff in how to report and spot political interference
  • Follows allegations White House waged a war on science early in the pandemic 

CDC and FDA officials ‘altered’ Covid guidance and even ‘suppressed’ findings related to the virus due to political pressure, a bombshell report suggests.

Investigators from the watchdog Government Accountability Office (GAO) spoke to more than a dozen directors and managers who worked at the agencies behind the country’s pandemic guidance. 

They unearthed allegations of ‘political interference’ in scientific reports, raising fears that research was tampered with.

In its 37-page report, the GAO warned that neither agency had a system in place for reporting allegations of political interference. It also said they had failed to train staff how to spot and report this.

Whistleblowers said they did not speak up at the time for fear of retaliation, because they were unsure how to report the issues or believed leaders were already aware.  

This is just the latest in a growing patchwork of reports suggesting politicians influenced ‘scientific’ papers during the pandemic for their own ends.

On Tuesday, the Biden administration’s top medical adviser Dr Anthony Fauci declared the U.S. is now ‘out of the pandemic phase’ of Covid, citing low cases and hospitalizations.

But health experts were quick to question the claim — buried at the end of an interview with PBS’ NewsHour — suggesting he may have bungled his words and should only have said the nation was in a phase of ‘low hospitalizations’. 

In the early phase the White House was accused of waging a war on science, with then-president Donald Trump repeatedly pushing for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports to be amended to support his views, as shown in emails made public by congressional investigators last April.

The CDC is facing allegations that it altered and suppressed Covid guidance that was meant to save lives. (Stock image of its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia)

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The CDC is facing allegations that it altered and suppressed Covid guidance that was meant to save lives. (Stock image of its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia) 
The FDA is facing the same accusations, following its approval of a blood plasma treatment early in the pandemic. Hospitals are no longer offering blood plasma to most patients because it provided 'little benefit'. (Stock image of their headquarters in White Oak, Maryland)

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The FDA is facing the same accusations, following its approval of a blood plasma treatment early in the pandemic. Hospitals are no longer offering blood plasma to most patients because it provided ‘little benefit’. (Stock image of their headquarters in White Oak, Maryland) 
The Biden administration's top medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has declared the United States is now 'out of the pandemic phase' of Covid-19 , as cases and hospitalizations associated with the disease remain low

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The Biden administration’s top medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has declared the United States is now ‘out of the pandemic phase’ of Covid-19 , as cases and hospitalizations associated with the disease remain low 

‘A few respondents from CDC and [Food and Drug Administration] FDA stated they felt that the potential political interference they observed resulted in the alteration or suppression of scientific findings,’ GAO investigators wrote in the report.

‘Some of these respondents believed that this potential political interference may have resulted in the politically motivated alteration of public health guidance or delayed publication of Covid-related scientific findings.’

The GAO report published last week looked into the two agencies, alongside the National Institutes of Health (NIH) — America’s top research institution— and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) — in charge of natural disaster response.

Prominent COVID Doctor Accused Of $1.5 Million Healthcare Fraud

Prominent COVID Doctor Accused Of $1.5 Million Healthcare Fraud

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 08:20 PM

A prominent Maryland doctor in charge of COVID-19 testing at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport and elsewhere has been accused by federal prosecutors of overcharging Medicare and other insurers by more than $1.5 million.

Ron Elfenbein, 47, who was presented an award last August by Gov. Larry Hogan for his efforts during the pandemic, allegedly overbilled for COVID-19 tests in combination with “more lucrative, but medically unnecessary” services, according to a grand jury indictment reported by the Washington Post, which notes that these services “were purportedly of a 30-minute or longer duration, or involving moderate or high levels of medical decision-making, but did not in fact occur as represented.”

The indictment alleges Elfenbein knew many patients were being seen for less than five minutes but directed staffers to bill for the higher-level services anyway, saying they were “the ‘bread and butter’ of how we get paid.”

The indictment, which charges Elfenbein with three counts of health-care fraud, identifies him as an owner and medical director of Drs ERgent Care, a company that also does business under the names First Call Medical Center and Chesapeake ERgent Care.

According to Elfenbein’s lawyer, Mikle Lawlor, “In the early days of the pandemic, Dr. Ron Elfenbein rallied his doctor’s office in a time of global fear, to be a leading provider of coronavirus testing and treatment in the community,” adding ” … A trial in this case will prove not only that Dr. Elfenbein is innocent of the charges hastily brought by the government, but that during a time of unprecedented need, Dr. Elfenbein and his staff saved the lives of numerous Marylanders.”

The indictment identifies Elfenbein with three counts of healthcare fraud, and identifies him as an owner and medical director of a company called “Drs ERgent Care,” which also does business under “First Call Medical Center and Chesapeake ERgent Care.”

Cute.

Read about the entire tangled web here. 65,589200

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There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021

Posted: February 2, 2022

KUSI Newsroom Play Video

SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Several US life insurance companies have recently revealed an overwhelming unexplained increase (40%) in “all-cause deaths” amongst 18 to 49-year-olds.

Three physician “whistle-blowers” have just released real data from the DoD, drawn from the clinical diagnosis codes. The increases found are from 2021, compared to the five year average from 2016 to 2020.

Myocardial infarction: 269% increase
> Miscarriages: 300% increase
> Bell’s palsy: 291% increase
> Congenital malformations: 156% increase
> Female infertility: 471% increase
> Pulmonary embolisms: 467% increase
> Neurologic abnormalities: 300% increase
> Cancers: 300% increase

As of now, the CDC has not explained this data.

Dr. Kelly Victory discussed the surprising findings and respond to those who believe the COVID-19 vaccines have caused these increases.

THE “VACCINE” AGENDA: Methods for producing recombinant coronavirus Patent Form 2002

Shared from Patriot Sovereign Man of Lora’s Research Group

THE “VACCINE” AGENDA:
Methods for producing recombinant coronavirus Patent Form 2002
https://patents.google.com/patent/US7279327B2/en

Nano coronavirus recombinant vaccine taking graphene oxide as carrier
https://patents.google.com/patent/CN112220919A/en

CORONA VIRUS PATENT: US-10130701-B2
Inventor
BICKERTON ERICA (GB)
KEEP SARAH (GB)
BRITTON PAUL (GB)
Assignee
THE PIRBRIGHT INST (GB)
Dates
Grant
2018/11/20
Priority
2014/07/23
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/patent/US-10130701-B2

October 13, 2015
The Patent Application for the System and Method for Testing for COVID-19 Was Filed – The Inventor Is Listed As Richard A. Rothschild
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/patent/US-2020279585-A1

The present invention generally relates to nanoscale wires and/or injectable devices. In some embodiments, the present invention is directed to electronic devices that can be injected or inserted into soft matter, such as biological tissue or polymeric matrixes. For example, the device may be passed through a syringe or a needle. In some cases, the device may comprise one or more nanoscale wires. Other components to, such as fluids or cells, may also be injected or inserted. In addition, in some cases, the device, after insertion or injection, may be connected to an external electrical circuit, e.g., to a computer. Other embodiments are generally directed to systems and methods of making, using, or promoting such devices, kits involving such devices, and the like.
https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2015199784A2/en

2017
Harvard’s Charles Lieber Patents Syringe-Injectable Mesh Electronics Integrate Seamlessly with Minimal Chronic Immune Response in the Brain https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28533392/

U.S.A. PATENT FOR CORONAVIRUS VACCINE FROM 2016!
Publication NumberWO/2016/012793
Publication Date28.01.2016
International Application No.PCT/GB2015/052124
International Filing Date23.07.2015
Applicants
• THE PIRBRIGHT INSTITUTE [GB]/[GB]
Inventors
• BICKERTON, Erica
• KEEP, Sarah
• BRITTON, Paul
Usa Pattent Link: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2016012793

White House Says The Quiet Part Out Loud, Confesses Jabs Killing People Of Color At An Alarming Rate [VIDEO]

If one were to apply the Left’s standards, this would be racist.

BY GREGORY HOYT
APRIL 16, 2022

WASHINGTON, DC – On April 14th, the White House debuted a virtual event dubbed “Convening on Equity,” where among the presenters featured was Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra who made the astonishing announcement that the COVID jabs were killing off “people of color” at a rate twice as high as white Americans.

“Secondly, by having better data, we can do a couple of things. Vaccines a year ago today, by the way, we know that vaccines are killing people of color, blacks, Latinos, indigenous people at about two times the rate of white Americans. So, on vaccines last year, we saw that about two-thirds of white American adults had received at least one shot of vaccine.

“That was just barely over 50% for black Americans and Latinos at that particular time. So again, we’ve got to work. Today, a year later, over 80% of white American adults have received at least one shot. Over 80% of black American adults have received at least one shot. Over 80% of Latino Americans have received at least one vaccine shot

The gravity of the HHS secretary outwardly linking these COVID shots to killing people is certainly something, considering that the Biden administration has been a massive advocate of the “safe and effective” narrative surrounding these shots.

Get Dr. Zev Zelenko M.D.’s NEW Z-DTOX and Z-Stack Protocol, use code RVM for discount

As time goes on, we’re learning more about the adverse effects caused by these COVID shots, with institutions who’d pressured society to take these very shots and quietly admit that they may not have been as “safe” as they were promoted to be.

Earlier in April, Red Voice Media reported on how the World Health Organization (WHO) acknowledged in a March newsletter that cases of “sudden” hearing loss and tinnitus were being linked to the COVID jabs, going so far as to admit “alternative causes were not identified” regarding the hearing loss and tinnitus cases.

Weeks earlier, Pfizer documents that were released unveiled a list of 1,291 different types of adverse reactions that were of “special interest” that occurred during the clinical trials of their COVID shot.

Of course, any talk of severe adverse reactions and even death stemming from these shots is not something that rests well with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, who likens the sharing of these jab-related injuries as being a criminal act.

Back on March 29th, Bourla mocked those who’ve lost loved ones from these shots, saying, “They know that what they’re saying is lying. But they do it despite that. There’s an article with a picture of a man’s wife ‘I forced her to get the vaccine, and then because of the vaccine, she died.’ I realize all of that lies, of course. And they did it, why? Because they wanted to convince people that they were on the fence to do the vaccine or not, don’t do it. Look, his wife died. But forget that, that’s nothing compared to how many people didn’t do the vaccine and died because of that. So they are criminals.”

How Prepared Are You? Emergency Preparedness, Water Filters, Food Storage & Supplies

Source: Red Voice Red Voice Media

What’s All This Fuss About Snake Venom??

Stew Peters and Dr. Ardis discuss conclusions Dr. Ardis’s conclusion that Covid-19 most likely came from the King Cobra /Chinese red headed Crepes.

WORLD PREMIERE: WATCH THE WATER – TRUMP ALWAYS GAVE YOU FREEDOM OF CHOICE

Situation Update
April 14, 2022

Video – WORLD PREMIERE: WATCH THE WATER – TRUMP ALWAYS GAVE YOU FREEDOM OF CHOICE: https://rumble.com/v10x9dt-world-premiere-watch-the-water-trump-always-gave-you-freedom-of-choice.html

FULL VIDEO: https://rumble.com/v10uh1l-situation-update-41322-venomtech-company-announces-massive-library&#8230;.html

For more Situation Updates: https://rumble.com/c/SituationUpdate

WATCH: Connecting the CIA TO COBRA VENOM!!!!!!!! 1975 NY TIMES ARTICLE: https://rumble.com/v10zb8z-ny-times-1975-publication-cia-using-cobra-venom

Dr. Ardis Live Q&A: COVID, Snake Venom, and Our Water Supply

Man in America April 14, 2022

Dr. Ardis’ website: https://thedrardisshow.com/

After Dr. Ardis’ bombshell interview with Stew Peters, everyone wants to know—is he crazy, a heroic whistleblower, or just a humble man trying to share the COVID science he uncovered? Is there any truth to the claims that snake venom and COVID are linked? Today, Seth gives you the chance to ask Dr. Ardis your questions for yourself. Join us for a live Q&A

WATCH: https://rumble.com/v10yvn1-dr.-ardis-live-q-and-a-covid-snake-venom-and-our-water-supply.html

FOR MORE VIDEOS And Interviews with DR. Ardis about SNAKE VENOM, go here

CDC to extend federal transportation mask mandate for additional 15 days

CDC to extend federal transportation mask mandate for additional 15 days

By Brenda Goodman and Betsy Klein, CNN

Updated 11:42 AM ET, Wed April 13, 2022

A traveler walks through the George Bush Intercontinental Airport on December 03, 2021 in Houston, Texas.
A traveler walks through the George Bush Intercontinental Airport on December 03, 2021 in Houston, Texas.

HERE WE GO AGAIN…

The corrupt Genocide CDC, Plandemic-Pusher’s, are at it again… as always… using any excuse they can, whether it makes sense or whether science agrees or not have come to another nefarious conclusion about masks mandates.

Here’s the kicker… their heinous excuse this time is to gather more information and understanding of the BA.2 variant of the coronavirus.

Can someone please explain this to me?

Here’s the article:

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans to extend the federal transportation mask mandate for another 15 days to early May, according to a Biden administration official familiar with the decision.

The announcement is expected as early as Wednesday afternoon from the CDC. The mandate is now set to expire on May 3. The Associated Press was first to report the extension.

The administration official familiar with the decision told CNN the goal of the extension was to gather more information and understanding of the BA.2 variant of the coronavirus.

“Since early April, there have been increases in the 7-day moving average of cases in the US. In order to assess the potential impact, the rise of cases has on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and health care system capacity, CDC is recommending that TSA extend the security directive to enforce mask use on public transportation and transportation hubs for 15 days, through May 3, 2022,” the official told CNN.

The official added, “This will give additional time for the CDC to learn more about BA.2 and make a best-informed decision.”

The US is now averaging 38,345 new Covid-19 cases per day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Cases are trending up in more than half of states — including all but one state in the Northeast, Delaware. But the daily rate is still one of the lowest since mid-July.

According to the latest estimates from the CDC, BA.2 caused 86% of new Covid-19 cases nationwide last week.

The mandate , which requires masks on public transportation such as planes, trains, buses — as well as in hubs like airports and bus terminalshad been set to expire on April 18. White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha told CNN on Monday that the CDC planned to share a scientific framework this week for the federal transportation mask mandate.

This is a breaking story and will be updated. Source: (CNN)

Now that we have the masks thing cleared up go the next two weeks at least let me take this to another level.

if you’re one of those who’s thinking hasn’t quite caught up with some of your relatives, friends or coworkers or the rest of us, I would really like you to consider adjusting your thinking “outside the box” a little bit for a moment because you deserve to know and understand the truth like the rest of us. If society as a whole doesn’t start to grasp the entire truth of what has been happening and has happened, things are not going to turn out very well for any of us. This much I am convinced.

In case you missed it!

Just in case you missed the “venomous” conclusion regarding the origin of the coronavirus you might want to hear the latest findings. I was blown away! Videos discussion’s centered around the research findings of Dr. Bryan Ardis (www.ardisantidote.com), the real origin of the virus, the goal of this Plandemic, and who is behind it!

The plandemic continues, but its origins are still a nefarious mystery. How did the world get sick, how did Covid really spread, and did the Satanic elite tell the world about this bioweapon ahead of time? Dr. Bryan Ardis (www.ardisantidote.com) has unveiled a shocking connection between this pandemic and the eternal battle of good and evil which began in the Garden of Eden.

Here’s a couple of recommended watches for you. Be sure you’re sitting down! I literally watched one of them 3 times last night because I couldn’t believe my ears!

#1 Watch

Watch the Water with Stew Peters: https://rumble.com/v10mnew-live-world-premiere-watch-the-water.html

In this Stew Peters Network exclusive, Director Stew Peters, award winning filmmaker Nicholas Stumphauzer and Executive Producer Lauren Witzke bring to light a truth satan himself has fought to suppress.

For more information on Dr. Bryan Ardis: Visit http://ardisantidote.com/ to learn how to protect you and your loved ones during this biological war.

# 2 Watch

4.13.22: VENOM, COBRAS, Digital Warriors, NYC…more EXPOSURE of the [DS} evil! PRAY!– with And We Know

https://rumble.com/v10u04f-4.13.22-venom-cobras-digital-warriors-nyc…more-exposure-of-the-ds-evil-pr.html

Fauci Predicts ‘Uptick’ in COVID, Floats Indoors Mask Requirement

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that the new BA.2 variant of COVID will cause an “uptick” of cases which might cause a return to requirements for wearing masks indoors.

Fauci said, “Obviously, there is concern that we are seeing an uptick in cases, as I mentioned over the last couple of weeks, that this is not unexpected, that you’re going to see an uptick when you pull back on the mitigation methods. If you look at the CDC calculation with their new metrics, it’s clear that most of the country, even though we’re seeing an uptick, is still in that green zone, which means that masking is not recommended in the sense of not required on indoor settings.”

He continued, “But as people pull back when you have a highly transmissible virus like the BA.2 variant, and you have pulling back on mitigation methods at the same time there’s waning immunity, we’re going to see an uptick.”

Fauci added, “What we’re hoping happens, and I believe it will, is that you won’t see a concomitant comparable increase in severity In the sense of people requiring hospitalizations and deaths. But the idea that we’re going to see an uptick, I think people need to appreciate that’s the case and follow the CDC guidelines because, remember, when the metrics were put forth, the new metrics looking at the guidance of masking, it was said that if we do start seeing an uptick, particularly of hospitalizations, we may need to revert back to being more careful and having more utilizations of masks indoors. Right now, we’re watching it very, very carefully, and there is concern that it’s going up, but hopefully, we’re not going to see increased severity.”

SOURCE: https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/04/10/fauci-predicts-uptick-in-covid-floats-indoors-mask-requirement/

Follow Pam Key on Twitter @pamkeyNEN

Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence

Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence

The could possibly be the rabbit hole from Hell… Some of it seems like it could make sense but that’s how the work. I wonder what one would find if they dug deep – real deep and followed the money Trail on this subject???

Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges.

The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include:

specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels.

The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities.

The centers’ objectives would be 3-fold:

a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health;

b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and

c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.

Human-induced land use changes are the primary drivers of a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and also modifiers of the transmission of endemic infections (Patz et al. 2000).

These land use changes include:

  • deforestation
  • road construction
  • agricultural encroachment
  • dam building
  • irrigation
  • coastal zone degradation
  • wetland modification
  • mining
  • the concentration or expansion of urban environments
  • and other activities.

These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, pathogen introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. These are important and complex issues that are understood only for a few diseases. For example, recent research has shown that forest fragmentation, urban sprawl, and biodiversity loss are linked to increased risk for Lyme disease in the northeastern United States (Schmidt and Ostfeld 2001). Expansion and changes in agricultural practices are intimately associated with the emergence of Nipah virus in Malaysia (Chua et al. 1999; Lam and Chua 2002), cryptosporidiosis in Europe and North America, and a range of food-borne illnesses globally (Rose et al. 2001). Road building is linked to the expansion of bushmeat consumption that may have played a key role in the early emergence of human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2 (Wolfe et al. 2000), and simian foamy virus has been found in bushmeat hunters (Wolfe et al. 2004).

In recognition of the complexity of land use change and the risks and benefits to human health that it entails, a special colloquium titled “Unhealthy Landscapes: How Land Use Change Affects Health” was convened at the 2002 biennial meeting of the International Society for Ecosystem Health (6–11 June 2002, Washington, DC) to address this issue. The invited experts worked to establish consensus on the current state of science and identify key knowledge gaps underlying this issue. This article condenses the working group’s report and presents a new research and policy agenda for understanding land use change and its effects on human health. Specifically, we discuss land-use drivers or human activities that exacerbate infectious diseases; the land–water interface, common to many infectious disease life cycles; and conclusions and recommendations for research and training from the working group.

Land-Use Drivers of Infectious Disease Emergence

The emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) resulting from land use change can be entirely new to a specific location or host species. This may occur either from “spillover” or cross-species transmission or simply by extension of geographic range into new or changed habitats. More than 75% of human diseases are zoonotic and have a link to wildlife and domestic animals (Taylor et al. 2001).

The working group developed an extensive list of processes by which land use affects human health (specifically, infectious disease occurrence) and of other factors that contribute to this relationship: agricultural development, urbanization, deforestation, population movement, increasing population, introduction of novel species/pathogens, water and air pollution, biodiversity loss, habit fragmentation, road building, macro and micro climate changes, hydrological alteration, decline in public health infrastructure, animal-intensive systems, eutrophication, military conflict, monocropping, and erosion (ranked from highest to lowest public health impact by meeting participants). The four mechanisms that were felt to have the greatest impact on public health were changes to the physical environment; movement of populations, pathogens, and trade; agriculture; and urbanization. War and civil unrest were also mentioned as a potentially acute and cross-cutting driver. Infectious disease agents with the strongest documented or suspected links to land use change are listed in Table 1.

Changes to the biophysical environment.

Deforestation.

Rates of deforestation have grown exponentially since the beginning of the 20th century. Driven by rapidly increasing human population numbers, large swaths of species-rich tropical and temperate forests, as well as prairies, grasslands, and wetlands, have been converted to species-poor agricultural and ranching areas. The global rate of tropical deforestation continues at staggering levels, with nearly 2–3% of forests lost globally each year. Parallel with this habitat destruction is an exponential growth in human–wildlife interaction and conflict. This has resulted in exposure to new pathogens for humans, livestock, and wildlife (Wolfe et al. 2000). Deforestation and the processes that lead to it have many consequences for ecosystems. Deforestation decreases the overall habitat available for wildlife species. It also modifies the structure of environments, for example, by fragmenting habitats into smaller patches separated by agricultural activities or human populations. Increased “edge effect” (from a patchwork of varied land uses) can further promote interaction among pathogens, vectors, and hosts. This edge effect has been well documented for Lyme disease (Glass et al. 1995). Similarly, increased activity in forest habitats (through behavior or occupation) appears to be a major risk factor for leishmaniasis (Weigle et al. 1993). Evidence is mounting that deforestation and ecosystem changes have implications for the distribution of many other microorganisms and the health of human, domestic animal, and wildlife populations.

One example of the effects of land use on human health is particularly noteworthy. Deforestation, with subsequent changes in land use and human settlement patterns, has coincided with an upsurge of malaria and/or its vectors in Africa (Coluzzi 1984, 1994; Coluzzi et al. 1979), in Asia (Bunnag et al. 1979), and in Latin America (Tadei et al. 1998). When tropical forests are cleared for human activities, they are typically converted into agricultural or grazing lands. This process is usually exacerbated by construction of roads, causing erosion and allowing previously inaccessible areas to become colonized by people (Kalliola and Flores Paitán 1998). Cleared lands and culverts that collect rainwater are in some areas far more suitable for larvae of malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes than are intact forests (Charlwood and Alecrim 1989; Jones 1951; Marques 1987).

Another example of the effects of land use on human health involves deforestation and noninfectious disease: the contamination of rivers with mercury. Soil erosion after deforestation adds significant mercury loads, which are found naturally in rainforest soils, to rivers. This has led to fish in the Amazon becoming hazardous to eat (Fostier et al. 2000; Veiga et al. 1994).

Habitat fragmentation.

This alters the composition of host species in an environment and can change the fundamental ecology of microorganisms. Because of the nature of food webs within ecosystems, organisms at higher trophic levels exist at a lower population density and are often quite sensitive to changes in food availability. The smaller patches left after fragmentation often do not have sufficient prey for top predators, resulting in local extinction of predator species and a subsequent increase in the density of their prey species. Logging and road building in Latin America have increased the incidence of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (Desjeux 2001), which in some areas has resulted from an increase in the number of fox reservoirs and sandfly vectors that have adapted to the peridomestic environment (Patz et al. 2000). Foxes, however, are not very important reservoirs for leishmaniasis in Latin America (Courtenay et al. 2002), and a more important factor in the transmission cycle includes domestic dogs.

Ostfeld and Keesing (2000) have demonstrated that smaller fragments in North American forests have fewer small mammal predators. Results suggest that the probability that a tick will become infected depends on not only the density of white-footed mice but also the density of mice relative to that of other hosts in the community. Under this scenario, the density effect of white-footed mice, which are efficient reservoirs for Lyme disease, can be “diluted” by an increasing density of alternative hosts, which are less efficient at transmitting Lyme disease. These results suggest that increasing host diversity (species richness) may decrease the risk of disease through a “dilution effect” (Schmidt and Ostfeld 2001).

Extractive industries.

Gold mining is an extractive industry that damages local and regional environments and has adverse human health effects, because mercury is used to extract gold from riverbeds in the tropical forests. Not only does mercury accumulate in local fish populations, making them toxic to eat (Lebel et al. 1996, 1998), but mercury also suppresses the human immune system. Also, in gold-mining areas, more mosquito-breeding sites and increased malaria risk result from digging gem pits in the forest and from craters resulting from logging; broader disease spread occurs as populations disperse throughout the region (Silbergeld et al. 2002).

Movement of populations, pathogens, and trade.

The movement of humans, domestic animals, wildlife populations, and agricultural products through travel, trade, and translocations is a driver of infectious disease emergence globally. These sometimes inadvertent, sometimes deliberate movements of infectious disease and vectors (e.g., the introduction of smallpox and measles to the Americas by Spanish conquistadors) will continue to rise via continually expanding global travel and by development of Third World populations. Human introduction of pathogens, hosts, or materials into new areas has been termed “pathogen pollution” (Daszak et al. 2000).

Land use changes drive some of these introductions and migrations and also increase the vulnerability of habitats and populations to these introductions. Human migrations also drive land use changes that in turn drive infectious disease emergence. For example, in China’s Yunnan Province, an increase in livestock populations and migration has led to an increase in the incidence of schistosomiasis (Jiang et al. 1997). In Malaysia, a combination of deforestation, drought, and wildfires has led to alterations in the population movements and densities of flying foxes, large fruit bats known to be the reservoir for the newly emergent zoonosis Nipah virus (Chua et al. 1999). It is believed that the increased opportunity for contact between infected bats and pigs produced the outbreak of the disease in pigs, which then was transmitted to people in contact with infected pigs (Aziz et al. 2002).

Another example of human-induced animal movement on a much larger scale is the international pet trade. This movement of animals involves many countries and allows for the introduction of novel pathogens, such as monkeypox, with the potential to damage ecosystems and threaten human and animal health. Monkeypox was originally associated with bushmeat hunting of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus badius); after a localized epidemic emerged in humans, monkeypox persisted for four generations via human-to-human contact (Jezek et al. 1986).

Human movement also has significant implications for public health. Not only are travelers (tourists, businesspeople, and other workers) at risk of contracting communicable diseases when visiting tropical countries, but they also can act as vectors for delivering infectious diseases to another region or, in the case of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), potentially around the world. Refugees account for a significant number of human migrants, carrying diseases such as hepatitis B and tuberculosis and various parasites (Loutan et al. 1997). Because of their status, refugees become impoverished and are more exposed to a wide range of health risks. This is caused by the disruption of basic health services, inadequate food and medical care, and lack of clean water and sanitation (Toole and Waldman 1997). People who cross international boundaries, such as travelers, immigrants, and refugees, may be at increased risk of contracting infectious diseases, especially those who have no immunity because the disease agents are uncommon in their native countries. Immigrants may come from nations where diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria are endemic, and refugees may come from situations where crowding and malnutrition create ideal conditions for the spread of diseases such as cholera, shigellosis, malaria, and measles [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 1998].

Zoonoses.

The importance of zoonotic diseases should be emphasized. Zoonotic pathogens are the most significant cause of EIDs affecting humans, both in the proportion of EIDs that they cause and in the impact that they have. Some 1,415 species of infectious organisms are known to be pathogenic to people, with 61% of them being zoonotic. Of the emerging pathogens, 75% are zoonotic, and zoonotic pathogens are twice as likely to be associated with emerging diseases than are nonzoonotic pathogens (Taylor et al. 2001). More important, zoonotic pathogens cause a series of EIDs with high case fatality rates and no reliable cure, vaccine, or therapy (e.g., Ebola virus disease, Nipah virus disease, and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome). Zoonotic pathogens also cause diseases that have some of the highest incidence rates globally [e.g., acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)]. AIDS is a special case, because it is caused by a pathogen that jumped host from nonhuman primates and then evolved into a new virus. Thus, it is in origin a zoonotic organism (Hahn et al. 2000).

Because of the important role of zoonoses in current public health threats, wildlife and domestic animals play a key role in the process by providing a “zoonotic pool” from which previously unknown pathogens may emerge (Daszak et al. 2001). The influenza virus is an example, causing pandemics in humans after periodic exchange of genes among the viruses of wild and domestic birds, pigs, and humans. Fruit bats are involved in a high-profile group of EIDs that includes rabies and other lyssaviruses, Hendra virus and Menangle virus (Australia), and Nipah virus (Malaysia and Singapore), which has implications for further zoonotic disease emergence. A number of species are endemic to both remote oceanic islands and more populous suburban and rural human settlements; these may harbor enzootic and potentially zoonotic pathogens with an unknown potential for spillover (Daszak et al. 2000).

Thus, some of the current major infectious threats to human health are EIDs and reemerging infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on zoonotic pathogens transferring hosts from wildlife and domestic animals. A common, defining theme for most EIDs (of humans, wildlife, domestic animals, and plants) is that they are driven to emerge by anthropogenic changes to the environment. Because threats to wildlife habitat are so extensive and pervading, many of the currently important human EIDs (e.g., AIDS, Nipah virus disease) are driven partly by human-induced changes to wildlife habitat such as encroachment and deforestation. This is essentially a process of natural selection in which anthropogenic environmental changes perturb the host–parasite dynamic equilibrium, leading to the expansion of those strains suited to the new environmental conditions and facilitating expansion of others into new host species (Daszak et al. 2001).

Agriculture.

Crop irrigation and breeding sites.

Agriculture occupies about half of the world’s land and uses more than two-thirds of the world’s fresh water (Horrigan et al. 2002). Agricultural development in many parts of the world has increased the need for crop irrigation, which reduces water availability for other uses and increases breeding sites for disease vectors. An increase in soil moisture associated with irrigation development in the southern Nile Delta after the construction of the Aswan High Dam has caused a rapid rise in the mosquito Culex pipiens and consequential increase in the arthropod-borne disease Bancroftian filariasis (Harb et al. 1993; Thompson et al. 1996). Onchocerciasis and trypanosomiasis are further examples of vector-borne parasitic diseases that may be triggered by changing land-use and water management patterns. In addition, large-scale use of pesticides has had deleterious effects on farm workers, including hormone disruption and immune suppression (Straube et al. 1999).

Food-borne diseases.

Once agricultural development has expanded and produced food sufficient to meet local need, the food products are exported to other nations, where they can pose a risk to human health. The increase in imported foods has resulted in a rise in food-borne illness in the United States. Strawberries from Mexico, raspberries from Guatemala, carrots from Peru, and coconut milk from Thailand have caused recent outbreaks. Food safety is an important factor in human health, because food-borne disease accounts for an estimated 76 million illnesses, 325,000 hospitalizations, and 5,200 deaths in the United States each year (CDC 2003). Other dangers include antibiotic-resistant organisms, such as Cyclospora, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and other pathogenic E. coli strains associated with hemolytic uremic syndrome in children (Dols et al. 2001).

Secondary effects.

Agricultural secondary effects need to be minimized, such as the emerging microbial resistance from antibiotics in animal waste that is included in farm runoff and the introduction of microdams for irrigation in Ethiopia that resulted in a 7-fold increase in malaria (Ghebreyesus et al. 1999).

Urbanization.

On a global basis, the proportion of people living in urban centers will increase to an unprecedented 65% by the year 2030 (Population Reference Bureau 1998). The 2000 census shows that 80% of the U.S. population now lives in metropolitan areas, with 30% living in cities of 5 million or more. The environmental issues posed by such large population centers have profound impacts on public health beyond the city limits (Knowlton 2001).

Alterations of ecosystems and natural resources contribute to the emergence and spread of infectious disease agents. Human encroachment of wildlife habitat has broadened the interface between wildlife and humans, increasing opportunities for both the emergence of novel infectious diseases in wildlife and their transmission to people. Rabies is an example of a zoonotic disease carried by animals that has become habituated to urban environments. Bats colonize buildings, skunks and raccoons scavenge human refuse, and in many countries feral dogs in the streets are common and the major source of human infection (Singh et al. 2001).

Infectious diseases can also pass from people to wildlife. Nonhuman primates have acquired measles from ecotourists (Wallis and Lee 1999). Also, drug resistance in gram-negative enteric bacteria of wild baboons living with limited human contact is significantly less common than in baboons living with human contact near urban or semiurban human settlements (Rolland et al. 1985).

The Land–Water Interface

Another major driver of infectious disease emergence results from the land–water interface. Land use changes often involve water projects or coastal marine systems in which nutrients from agricultural runoff can cause algal blooms.

Currently the seventh Cholera pandemic is spreading across Asia, Africa, and South America. In 1992, a new serogroup (Vibrio cholerae O139) appeared and has been responsible for epidemics in Asia (Colwell 1996). The seasonality of cholera epidemics may be linked to the seasonality of plankton (algal blooms) and the marine food chain. Studies using remote-sensing data of chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton have shown a correlation between cholera cases and sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variability in cholera incidence in Bangladesh is also linked to the El Niño southern oscillation and regional temperature anomalies (Lobitz et al. 2000), and cholera prevalence has been associated with progressively stronger El Niño events spanning a 70-year period (Rodo et al. 2002). This observation on cholera incidence may represent an early health indicator of global climate change (Patz 2002).

Infectious diseases in marine mammals and sea turtles could serve as sentinels for human disease risk. Sea turtles worldwide are affected by fibropapillomatosis, a disease probably caused by one or several viruses and characterized by multiple epithelial tumors. Field studies support the observation that prevalence of this disease is associated with heavily polluted coastal areas, areas of high human density, agricultural runoff, and/or biotoxin-producing algae (Aguirre and Lutz, in press). This represents the breakdown of the land–water interface, to the point that several pathogens typical of terrestrial ecosystems have become established in the oceans. Toxoplasmosis in the endangered sea otter (Enhydra lutris) represents an example of pathogen pollution. Massive mortalities in pinnipeds and cetaceans reaching epidemics of tens of thousands are caused by four morbilliviruses evolving from the canine distemper virus (Aguirre et al. 2002). Additionally, overfishing has myriad ramifications for marine ecosystems and sustainable protein food sources for human populations.

Cryptosporidium, a protozoan that completes its life cycle within the intestine of mammals, sheds high numbers of infectious oocysts that are dispersed in feces. A recent study found that 13% of finished treated water still contained Cryptosporidium oocysts, indicating some passage of microorganisms from source to treated drinking water (LeChevallier and Norton 1995). The protozoan is highly prevalent in ruminants and is readily transmitted to humans. Thus, management of livestock contamination of watersheds is an important public health issue.

One example of how overexploitation of a natural water resource led to infectious disease is that of Lake Malawi in Africa. Overfishing in the lake reduced the population of snail-eating fish to such a level that snail populations erupted. Subsequently, schistosomiasis incidence and prevalence markedly rose after this ecologic imbalance (Madsen et al. 2001).

Recommendations from the Working Group

Conceptual model: bringing land use into public health policy.

The recommendations stemming from the international colloquium are highly relevant to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), a broad multiagency/foundation-sponsored scientific assessment of degraded ecosystem effects on human well-being. A conceptual framework of the MEA already provides an approach to optimize the contribution of ecosystems to human health (MEA 2003). This framework offers a mechanism to a) identify options that can better achieve human development and sustainable goals, b) better understand the trade-offs involved in environment-related decisions, and c) align response options at all scales, from the local to the global, where they can be most effective. This conceptual framework focuses on human well-being while also recognizing associated intrinsic values. Similar to the MEA, focus is particularly on the linkages between ecosystem services and human health. Workshop participants developed a conceptual model (Figure 1). Like the MEA, it assumes a dynamic interaction between humans and ecosystems that warrants a multiscale assessment (spatial and temporal).

By using this framework, policy makers may approach development and health at various levels. These levels include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. For sound health policy, we must shift away from dealing primarily with specific risk factors and look “upstream” to underlying land-use determinants of infectious disease and ultimately the human behavior and established institutions that are detrimental to sustainable population health. The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a similar DPSEEA (driving forces, pressures, state, exposure, effect, actions) model that in a similar way describes the interlinkage between human health and different driving forces and environmental change (WHO 1997).

As such understanding increases, it will become more feasible to plan how to prevent new infectious disease emergence. Yet, because these are rare events, accurate predictions will remain daunting. It is already evident that inserting humans into complex ecosystems can lead to a variety of EIDs, but health outcomes depend on the economic circumstances of the human population. In poor and tropical communities, land use change can lead to major shifts in infectious disease patterns. For these situations, many conventional public health interventions can prevent several infectious diseases at relatively low cost. In rich and temperate-climate communities, the infectious disease shifts tend to be more disease specific, for example, in the case of Lyme disease and habitat fragmentation.

Research on deforestation and infectious disease.

Considering the deforestation that usually accompanies agricultural development, new conservation-oriented agriculture should be pursued. As discussed above, water project development and modern livestock management present major health disease risks. However, often the secondary unintended consequences can also wreak havoc; for example, a leaking dam may present greater risks than the reservoir itself. A distressingly large number of development projects not only have adverse effects on human health but also fail to attain their primary economic purposes in a sustainable manner.

Habitat fragmentation, whether caused by forest destruction, desertification, or land-use conversion, affects human and wildlife health and ecosystem processes. There is already much research undertaken by landscape ecologists on the consequences of habitat fragmentation for wildlife, especially larger animals. It would be important to study the effects of landscape fragmentation on public health hazards. Such research could entail three components. The first component consists of gathering baseline data, including using historical data where possible and beginning monitoring programs where necessary. Key data include identifying and quantifying the relevant pathogen load of wildlife, livestock, and human communities in fragmented landscapes. The goals of this data collection are, first, to identify key infectious diseases, both chronic and emergent or reemergent and, second, to document the consequences of fragmentation on relative abundance of wildlife and subsequent pathogen load. For example, the loss of large predators in fragmented habitats in the northeastern United States has led to a superabundance of rodent vectors for Lyme disease.

The second component of the research program would involve health impact modeling, primarily in three areas: a) estimating changes in the relative abundance of organisms, including infectious disease vectors, pathogens, and hosts; b) projecting potential vector or transmission shifts (e.g., should the Nipah virus shift to pulmonary as well as neurologic expression in humans as in swine); and c) projecting the impact of infectious diseases in a region on different geographic scales.

The results of these analyses, if successful, could support the third component of research: development of decision-support tools. Improved decisions on land-use policy could be made from a better understanding of costs and benefits to health and environmental decision makers. In all probability, however, they will be very location specific. For example, to construct an irrigation scheme in India would likely invite a malaria epidemic, whereas the same activity in sub-Saharan Africa may have little effect on malaria transmission. It is worth mentioning that costs and benefits could depend on the time course over which they are assessed. For example, some land-use changes can lead to short-term increases in transmission followed by longer-term decreases (e.g., irrigation and malaria in Sri Lanka) or vice versa (e.g., deforestation and cutaneous leishmaniasis in Latin America).

Policies to reduce microbial traffic/pathogen pollution.

In today’s interconnected world, it becomes very important to invest in the worldwide control of infectious diseases in developing countries, for example. It is also necessary to control transport to stem the flow from one place to the next.

Improved monitoring of trade is warranted in order to target infectious disease introductions. In the attempt to prevent the invasion of a pathogen (and drug-resistant organisms) into the vulnerable areas subject to land use changes, we need to pay greater attention to controls at the sources. We need to document and map these trades and investigate the vectors, the infectious diseases they harbor, and the populations they threaten. Risk assessment should guide surveillance and the development of test kits, targeting point-of-origin intervention to preempt these processes. Assessments must further include nonmarket costs (usually to the detriment of the environment and long-term sustainable health). We should communicate to both the exporters and consumers the need to make their trades clean, economically viable, and certified “clean and green” by an independent scientific agency at the source and/or destination. Additionally, strategies for screening travelers for pathogens that may be introduced to a region should be improved.

Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training.

One approach to developing the issues to which this article draws attention is the creation of a system of regional- or subregional-based interdisciplinary Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training. Based at regional universities and/or research institutes but with very close links to the surrounding communities, these centers would have the following objectives:

  • Providing information based on good science to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health, including the factors that contribute to specific infectious disease outbreaks. The new research agenda must gather information on household and community perspectives about proposals for the use of their land. These perspectives are key to assessing the cost/benefit of a proposed project. Training local professionals in environmental, agricultural, and health science issues, with a particular focus on granting degrees in a new “trans”-discipline linking health and the environment, would be emphasized.
  • Acting as centers of integrated analysis of infectious disease emergence, incorporating perspectives and expertise from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences. Research activities would range from taxonomy of pathogens and vectors to identifying best practices for influencing changes in human behavior to reduce ecosystem and health risks.
  • Incorporating a “health impact assessment” as an important cross-sectorial decision-making tool in overall development planning (parallel to an environmental impact assessment), along with the need for doing more research.
  • Equipping professionals with the ability to recommend policy toward maintaining ecosystem function and promoting sustainable public health for future generations. For example, the link between forest fragmentation and Lyme disease risk could lead to preserving more intact tracts of forest habitat by planning “cluster” housing schemes.
Implementing research and policy programs.

In selecting areas for research and the placement of centers of excellence, it is important to choose geographically representative, highly diverse areas around the world. In addition, research projects should take place in regions or landscapes that have both well characterized and less characterized patterns of infectious disease emergence or transmission for comparison purposes. Local health and environment professionals, who are in the best position to understand local priorities, should make the choices within each region for initial research areas and sites.

Addressing trade-offs among environment, health, and development.

There are some inherent trade-offs when considering land-use change and health. They are ethical values, environmental versus health choices, and disparities in knowledge and economic class. Trade-offs are between short-term benefit and long-term damage. For example, draining swamps may reduce vector-borne disease hazards but also destroy the wetland ecosystem and its inherent services (e.g., water storage, water filtration, biologic productivity, and habitats for fish and wildlife). Research can help decision making by identifying and assessing trade-offs in different land-use-change scenarios. Balancing the diverse needs of people, livestock, wildlife, and the ecosystem will always be a prominent feature.

Conclusions

When considering issues of land use and infectious disease emergence, the public needs to be attentive to entire ecosystems rather than simply their local environs. Although we may not live within a certain environment, its health may indirectly affect our own. For example, intact forests support complex ecosystems and provide essential habitats for species that are specialized to those flora and that may be relevant to our health. If these complex relationships are disrupted, there may be unforeseen impacts on human health, as the above examples clearly demonstrate.

Encouraging initiatives.

Three new initiatives are rising to the challenges presented above. The first initiative, the Consortium for Conservation Medicine (CCM), was formed recently to address these health challenges at the interface of ecology, wildlife health, and public health (Figure 2). At its core, conservation medicine champions the integration of techniques and partnering of scientists from diverse disciplines, particularly veterinary medicine, conservation biology, and public health. Through the consortium, therefore, these experts work with educators, policy makers, and conservation program managers to devise approaches that improve the health of both species and humans simultaneously [more information is available from the CCM website (CCM 2004)].

The second initiative, the new international journal EcoHealth, focuses on the integration of knowledge at the intersection of ecologic and health sciences. The journal provides a gathering place for research and reviews that integrate the diverse knowledge of ecology, health, and sustainability, whether scientific, medical, local, or traditional. The journal will encourage development and innovation in methods and practice that link ecology and health, and it will ensure clear and concise presentation to facilitate practical and policy application [more information is available from the EcoHealth website (EcoHealth 2004)].

The third initiative, the MEA, is an international work program designed to meet the needs of decision makers and the public for scientific information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human health and well-being and for options in responding to those changes. This assessment was launched by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in June 2001 and will help to meet the assessment needs of international environmental forums, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention to Combat Desertification, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and the Convention on Migratory Species, as well as the needs of other users in the private sector and civil society [more information is available from the Millennium Assessment Working Groups website (Millennium Assessment Working Groups 2004)].

Challenges ahead.

As this working group of researchers continues to work on these topics, we face three challenges. First, strong trans-disciplinary research partnerships need to be forged to approach the research with the degree of creative thinking and comprehensiveness required by the nature of the problems. Second, if the work is to influence policy, the choice of questions and the research must be undertaken collaboratively with the local community and also through discussion with decision makers in government, industry, civil society, and other sectors. Third, investigators must consider how they can integrate their findings into the social, economic, and political dialogue on both the environment and health, globally and locally. As links between land use and health are elucidated, an informed public will more readily use such discoveries to better generate political will for effective change.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1 A systems model of land use change that affects public health. This model shows relationships between drivers of land use change and subsequent levels of environmental change and health consequences. Various levels of investigation and intervention are evident and range from specific risks factors and determinants of population vulnerability to larger institutional and economic activity.
Figure 2 The main elements converging under the Consortium for Conservation Medicine. Conservation medicine combines conservation biology, wildlife veterinary medicine, and public health. Adapted from Tabor (2002).

Table 1

SOURCE :

https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.1289/ehp.6877